An autumn election is more likely than a summer one, hints business minister

An autumn general election is more likely than a summer one, a business minister hinted yesterday.

Kevin Hollinrake talked up the Conservatives' chances despite a string of dire poll results, saying there's 'a lot of water to flow under the bridge' before the next election.

In a hint the Government will wait until much later in the year to call the poll, he insisted there was still time to turn around Tory fortunes if tax cuts and falling inflation and interest rates are given enough time to kick in.

It comes amid speculation about whether Rishi Sunak could call an election as early as June or July rather than wait until autumn.

Government sources say to hold one in autumn is the current 'working assumption', with the latest it can legally be held being January 2025.

The speculation was fuelled by the Prime Minister unveiling a surprise Easter honours list on Thursday.

The announcement being outside the traditional New Year and King's Birthday lists sparked speculation about a summer election, with Labour claiming it was the action of 'someone who doesn't expect to be PM much longer'.

But Mr Hollinrake appeared to suggest that the strategy is to wait until later this year. The business minister was asked about recent polls, including one in yesterday's Daily Mail which projected the Tories could be reduced to fewer than 100 seats from their current 348, their worst election defeat in history. 

Speaking on Sky News, he said: 'There's a lot of water to flow under the bridge yet before we get to an election, that's the point.

'And as I've said before, the economic good news we are seeing – taxes dropping, wages increasing, interest rates dropping, the economy is growing again – all those things are good and I think people will feel better about life.

'There's so many things going right, we need to make sure we don't throw all that away because Labour have never left office with unemployment lower than when they started.'

And on Good Morning Britain, he added: 'We will see the economy growing this year, we'll see real incomes rising, taxes dropping £900 for the average worker, we'll see interest rates dropping.'

It came as the rise to the national living wage kicked in yesterday, increasing the UK minimum wage by 9.8 per cent to £11.44 per hour – worth around £1,800 a year for thousands of workers.

Mr Hollinrake said it was an example of one of the 'many things going right'.