All eyes on France, Germany and Italy as EU top job talks expected to gain traction at G7

When the leaders of France, Germany and Italy meet informally on Thursday (13 June) on the sidelines of the G7 summit for the first time after the EU elections, they are expected to set the tone for the next weeks of EU top job discussions.

While not officially on the agenda, the G7 summit will feature private conversations between the leaders of the EU’s three biggest economies for a first stab at the division of the EU’s top jobs ahead of an informal dinner next week.

EU officials involved in preparations for the summit had played down the importance of any job talks that could happen on its sidelines when European G7 leaders meet in Bari, Italy.

“In the past, agreements made in G20 or G7 meetings create more tension than provide solutions because it is a limited number [of participants],” one EU senior official said.

After the 2019 European elections, a group of EU leaders at the G20 summit in Japan hashed out EU top job allocations with a Social Democrat, Frans Timmermans, earmarked to lead the European Commission.

Once they returned to Brussels for an EU leaders’ summit on the matter, the deal fell apart, especially since Eastern Europeans expressed reservations.

“Back then we witnessed the ‘silent killing’ of Timmermans, it wouldn’t be advisable to strike a deal this time that early, without the rest of the leaders,” one EU diplomat, not present at the G7 summit, said.

EU top job talks of the past term heavily depended on former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while France had waited for the ‘full package’ of names to become clear before throwing its full support behind the compromise plan.

Talk dynamics

This time, the outline of a deal for the EU’s top jobs and reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) has emerged less than a week after the EU elections and, contrary to initial expectations of heavy bargaining, could be ‘moving fast’ at an informal EU leaders’ dinner planned for next Monday (17 June), several European officials and diplomats confirmed.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron, leader of the liberal Renew Group, is bracing for snap legislative elections he called after poor results in the European elections last weekend.

For Macron, who has not publicly backed von der Leyen yet, time might be of the essence to seal a deal before the first round on 30 June, just after a decisive EU top job summit in Brussels (27-28 June).

Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose ruling coalition also suffered painful losses at the hands of the far-right, is the lead negotiator for the Socialists and Democrats.

Both leaders have warned von der Leyen against seeking a deal with Italy’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her party.

Meloni, the summit’s host and leader of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), is, by contrast, emboldened by the results of her far-right Fratelli d‘Italia party, which came out top in the domestic vote.

A small disadvantage for the EPP is that both its lead negotiators—Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis—are not present in Bari.

What could be the trade-off for Meloni?

While EU officials involved in the top job discussions believe Macron and Scholz could be open to moving with von der Leyen, the key question will be what Meloni would ask in return for her support.

On Monday (10 June), Meloni said it was “too soon to give an answer” regarding a potential second term for Ursula von der Leyen or alliances in the European Parliament.

Contacted by Euractiv, Fratelli d’Italia declined to comment on the matter.

However, Italian sources suggest that Meloni is ready to support a second term for von der Leyen in exchange for a significant commissioner portfolio. While Scholz and Macron are not keen on alliances with the far-right, they could acknowledge that an important VP Commission job goes to a Meloni ally.

Von der Leyen has been courting Meloni for months, given their agreement on various issues such as migration and the Green Deal, causing tensions within the EU political majority with Socialists and Renew, opposing collaboration with the far-right.

What could happen still to prevent von der Leyen?

When it comes to the potential speed of the discussion, one question is whether EU leaders are ready to throw their support behind von der Leyen without a ‘package deal’ of names first.

Next to von der Leyen for a second term as European Commission president, the names of Portugal’s Socialist Prime Minister António Costa as European Council president, Maltese MEP and current European Parliament President Roberta Metsola as head of the European Parliament are currently dealt as such a potential package deal, EU officials and diplomats in Brussels say.

The EU’s top diplomat job is slated for a liberal politician, could fall to Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas or even Belgium’s outgoing counterpart Alexander De Croo, whose names have been circulated in Brussels.

However, von der Leyen’s nomination without agreement on the three positions currently seems unlikely, especially in an EPP-dominated European Council, as it would risk other groups losing their bargaining chips in the negotiations.

Another scenario is whether the G7 trio could devise a last-ditch counter-candidate with Meloni’s support, but EU officials and diplomats aware of the discussions say this remains unlikely.

Even if she is designated by EU leaders, von der Leyen will still need to be confirmed by the European Parliament, which could vote as soon as 18 July.

There, she needs to rely on a centrist coalition of EPP, Socialists, and Renew and 361 out of 720 votes. If she cannot, she would need the Greens or even the far right in Parliament.

[Edited by Alice Taylor]

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