All eyes on Meloni as she vies to be the right’s kingmaker

5 months ago 17

As right-wing parties surge in the polls ahead of the EU elections, Italian Prime Minister and ECR leader Giorgia Meloni appears to be on her way to claiming the role of kingmaker in the next EU Parliament with her party’s “Italy changes Europe” slogan, but internal party rifts may cause issues.

According to the latest Europe Elects polls, Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) tops the charts – like several far-right parties across the bloc – with 27%, a six percentage lead ahead of Elly Schlein’s Democratic Party (S&D).

As for the other Italian parties, the once anti-establishment Five Star Movement, headed by former prime minister Giuseppe Conte, ranks third with 16%. However, despite only belonging to any European Parliament group, rumours suggest the party may form a new group with Germany’s Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).

The other two governing parties, Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani’s Forza Italia (EPP) and Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s League (ID), are currently neck-and-neck at 9% each. A potential surge for Forza Italia would likely benefit the party, especially as the League would also be far from the high 30% of votes it received in the last European elections in 2019.

Barely scraping above the 4% threshold are the separate EU lists of Carlo Calenda’s Azione and former prime minister Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva, which, despite earlier attempts by their leaders to unite the two parties under one list, threaten Italy’s representation in the European Renew group.

Meloni as kingmaker?

On the right side of the political aisle, Meloni and her party appear to be emerging as leading players, with polls predicting unprecedented success for right-wing groups.

However, Meloni is currently caught between two goals. Sheshe is simultaneously courted by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Rassemblement National figurehead Marine Le Pen—two camps that have already rejected the possibility of working together at EU level after the upcoming European elections.

In addition to Meloni’s recent call for a rapprochement with the right, which Le Pen recently nodded to, Meloni also firmly rejected the possibility of aligning with the centre-left in a recent interview with Skuola.net.

What makes her a kingmaker is how her actions could drastically change alliances in the European Parliament.

For instance, while von der Leyen has made moves that indicate a possible future alliance with Meloni, the left and some of her allies said they would block a second von der Leyen mandate if she were to form a coalition with Meloni.

Meloni has received pushback from her typical far-right allies, including her own ECR group while the far-right VOX has already declared its refusal to back von der Leyen.

The possible hurdle of preferential voting

At the same time, Italy’s preferential voting system could end up being a handicap for some candidates in the European elections, as it often means running against colleagues from one’s own party and candidates who are prominent figures such as Meloni, Tajani, and Schlein.

Such a system also results in parties choosing strategic candidates to mobilise the electorate rather than having a genuine intention to serve in the European Parliament, as each party has tailored their campaign themes to resonate with its core supporters.

While the opposition parties diverge on their campaign focus, with Schlein’s Democratic Party (S&D) advocating for a more social Europe with more EU integration at its core, the alliance between the Five Star Movement and the Greens and Left focuses on peace.

However, the focus varies again, with the government being formed by three parties that are part of different EU groups in the European Parliament.

While Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) advocates for a stronger government and boosting governance at the EU level with the slogan “Italy changes Europe”, the campaign of Tajani’s Forza Italia (EPP) centres on European defence.

Matteo Salvini’s Lega, like many parties in the European Parliament’s Identity and Democracy (ID) group, has its campaign focused on anti-European themes, aiming to attract voters disillusioned with the EU.

(Alessia Peretti | Euractiv.it, edited by Daniel Eck)