Analyst: Meloni still important for EPP due to lack of trust on socialists

Although Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s support may no longer be needed after the EU elections, with a clear pro-European majority likely to back Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) for a second term as European Commission president, experts say Meloni could still play a crucial role for the EPP in defining its positions.

Before the elections, there was much speculation about Meloni’s potential role as kingmaker in the next European majority as she was courted by both European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French Rassemblement National figurehead Marine Le Pen.

Now, after the vote, a larger pro-European majority of Greens, S&D, EPP, and Renew seems likely to support von der Leyen, potentially reducing Meloni’s influence, even though she emerged from these elections with the “strongest government of all”, as Meloni said on Monday.

But both Meloni and von der Leyen keep their cards close to their chests.

On Monday, Meloni said it was “too early to give an answer” on the formation of a majority and their possible support for von der Leyen’s second term, while von der Leyen has indicated that she will first consult with the “major European families” that have “worked well” with the European People’s Party (EPP), while leaving “doors open” for other contacts.

“I think Meloni can still be a kingmaker because the EPP probably doesn’t fully trust the Greens or the Socialists,” Lorenzo Castellani, a political analyst at LUISS Guido Carli University, told Euractiv Italy.

Castellani notes that von der Leyen risks facing opposition not only from the S&D and the Greens but also from factions within the EPP itself, making it likely that she will seek support from the right, with Meloni as a key interlocutor.

According to Castellani, Meloni’s votes could be crucial in ensuring the election of an EPP president, be it von der Leyen or someone else.

“Meloni might be willing to vote for an EPP president to secure a stronger commissioner role in return,” he added.

Castellani also foresees variable majorities in the next European Parliament, with the outgoing Ursula majority sometimes needing the support of the Conservatives.

According to Castellani, Meloni has a firm grip on the EPP: “Just think of what has already happened in votes such as immigration or environmental policies, which is why I am sceptical that the Greens could be permanently in this majority,” he said

Speaking to Euractiv Italy, Leo Goretti, head of the foreign policy programme at the Italian Institute of International Affairs (IAI), agrees, noting that there is already a convergence between the EPP, the ECR and partly the ID on issues such as the Green Deal, which he believes will become a “significant political demarcation in the next European legislature”.

Goretti also sees convergence in the externalisation of managing migration flows and defence.

He argues that Meloni remains a kingmaker not because of “her potential swing vote in parliament” but because of “her role in the European Council as the head of a major country with a solid mandate, unlike (French President Emmanuel) Macron and (German Chancellor Olaf) Scholz”.

A supergroup ‘unlikely’

While Meloni and Le Pen have called for a unification of the European right, Goretti believes this is unlikely because their two different positions “push them in different directions”.

This could change if Le Pen is elected.

As Italy’s prime minister, Meloni must consider “broader interests beyond her party’s electoral goals. This pragmatism has led her to adopt a cooperative stance towards the European Commission, recognising the need to advance Italy’s overall agenda, which requires engagement with European institutions”.

By contrast, Le Pen, still in opposition, can afford to adopt a more confrontational stance, “openly rejecting a second term for von der Leyen to distance herself from the European establishment”.

Goretti suggests that if Le Pen were France’s president, she would probably adopt a more pragmatic approach similar to Meloni’s.

(Alessia Peretti | Euractiv.it)

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