As COP28 approaches, Germany’s climate policy is at a standstill

Germany and the European Union are hoping to convince other countries to raise their climate targets at the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai. But this may be a tough task, considering Berlin’s waning credibility as a climate leader.

Germany, the world’s third-biggest economy, is an important player in global climate diplomacy. The annual Petersberg Climate Conference in Bonn, founded by former Chancellor Angela Merkel, is an important step in the run-up to the end-of-year COP meetings convened under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Heading into COP28, Germany has a clear goal. “We want the COP to formally decide to at least triple the expansion of renewable energies globally by 2030 and to double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who handles her country’s climate diplomacy.

That target, which has been adopted by all 27 EU countries as well, is something that the Germans want the credit for. “We initiated this together at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in early summer – and I am honestly a little proud of this,” she explained.

On the climate diplomacy side, all seems well.

But the situation at home has at the very least damaged Germany’s shine as a a global climate leader.

The news that Germany turned to climate-wrecking coal during last year’s energy crisis and shut down its last nuclear power plant, which produce close to zero emissions, cause incomprehension in Europe and around the world. Few cared that this decision is not expected to impact the climate much, as Germany had already closed all its other nuclear plants and Europe’s total emissions from the electricity sector are capped anyway. 

“If we are told that you, as industrialised countries, have not achieved your own climate targets, then it is not quite as credible to remind others of theirs,” conceded Baerbock.

Back to court

Yet, Germany’s domestic climate policy woes run much deeper than that.

The current government came to power in 2021 following a historic ruling by the country’s constitutional court, which said the German fundamental law protected the “intertemporal freedom” of future generations to enjoy a healthy climate.

Buoyed by the widespread success of the youth-led climate movement, the government that took office that year had both the legal mandate and the political will to engage in ambitious climate action. The big goal: slashing emissions by 65% relative to 1990 levels by 2030 before achieving climate neutrality by 2045.

Today, those lofty goals seem out of reach. Projections indicate that Germany will miss its 2030 climate target by around 200 million tonnes of CO2. Add recent budgetary woes and trade tensions with China, which could slow down the country’s switch to solar, and the gap is expected to widen even further.

What did the government do in response? It watered down the climate law, removing triggers for climate action that were initially envisioned.

“You call yourself the climate coalition and are postponing all measures,” said Thomas Heilmann, a politician from the centre-right CDU party. 

Heilmann is not alone expressing his disappointment with the country’s track record on climate policy. Climate Action Germany (DUH), together with some of the litigants from the historic 2021 climate case, is once more taking the government to court over its failure to protect the climate – and thus future generations’ freedom.

“If the government is not in a position to implement consistent climate protection on its own initiative, it must be obliged to do so by the courts,” said the 20-year-old climate activist Linus Steinmetz, who initiated the lawsuit and took part of the landmark 2021 case as well.

Similar lawsuits against 2022’s climate gaps, which the government refused to tackle then, are still pending. 

In November, upon invitation from the Bundestag, 14 of Germany’s most renowned climate experts similarly lambasted Germany’s climate policy. Roda Verheyen, a constitutional judge in Hamburg, said the situation was “extremely problematic under constitutional law”.

Germany’s climate law is “not even remotely compatible with the 1.5-degree limit,” said Sascha Müller-Kraenner, DUH’s managing director. 

Making Germany’s set of climate laws fit for the country’s court-mandated climate litigation has proven politically untenable. Bold interventions, such as the proposal to ban the installation of new fossil heaters as early as 2024, proved unworkable and brought the government to the brink of collapse.

Neither is a ratcheting of carbon prices considered an attractive option in the face of inflation and the rising cost of living. Several key lawmakers have warned against doing so. Matthias Miersch, deputy whip of the centre-left SPD told SZ that a sharp increase in carbon prices would be a “stimulus programme” for the far-right.

As a result, Germany’s 2030 climate target seems increasingly out of reach. Will its self-professed position as a global climate champion be recognised at COP28? At least, the government seems willing to try and sought to prop up its influence by offering up cash to developing countries.

[Edited by Nathalie Weatherald and Frédéric Simon]

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