Belgian far left, right lead in election polls as minors vote for the first time

3 months ago 28

With Belgians voting in regional, federal and European elections on the same day, the far-right and the far-left are set to make serious gains as experts differ on whether the substantial number of people aged 16-23 voting for the first time will influence the outcome.

Leading the latest Europe Elects polls with more than 10% are Tom van Grieken’s Vlaams Belang (ID), Bart de Wever’s N-VA (ECR) and PTB/PVDA (Left) – all of which are not part of the ruling coalition – with 15%,12% and 12% respectively.

Trailing with less than 10% are Paul Magnette’s Parti Socialiste (S&D) and MR (Renew) on 8%, CD&V (EPP) and Vooruit (S&D) on 7%, Les Engagés (EPP) on 6%, the liberal Open Vld of Prime Minister Alexander de Croo on 5%.

At the same time, the two Green parties, Groen and Ecolo, are polling at 4% and 3%, respectively. This means that while they are currently set to get one seat each if their numbers drop further, they may get none, as is predicted for the independent DELFI (2%).

Far-right and far-left gains

While the far-right N-VA is expected to lose two percentage points (14% in 2019) and one seat, Vlams Belang continues its run from around 5% in the 2014 EU elections to 12% in 2019 to 15% now – a result that would give ID four seats.

On the far left, PTB/PVDA is expected to get 12%, contributing two seats to the EU group GUE/NGL, compared to one seat and 8.42% in 2019.

This trend towards the extremes is driven by some form of “protest and dissatisfaction with politics” on the one hand and by those who back the more radical policies on the other, Stefaan Walgrave, a professor at the University of Antwerp, told Euractiv.

“Many Belgian citizens are dissatisfied with how their democracy works, and they do not feel represented by the existing parties or politicians,” he added, noting that they “vote for outsiders who can embody their protest.”

Migration and the economy centre-stage

Recent surveys and opinion polls show that migration, the economy and purchasing power are among the most important issues for Belgians – well ahead of climate, a key issue in 2019.

Migration, in particular, is something that the radical parties, especially on the right, are seen to have a ‘grip’ on,” says Associate Professor Didier Caluwaerts of VUB University, adding that the shift can also be explained by the fact that the stigma associated with voting for more radical parties seems to have evaporated.

Caluwaerts added that another factor favouring the far-right and far-left is voters’ desire for “an alternative” to the ruling parties at the national and regional levels.

The parties of the seven-party cabinet are associated with recent crises such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and the resulting inflation and high energy prices. According to Caluwaerts, these crises have fuelled anger and made many people feel threatened, which he says are the main motivations for voters to move to the far right or far left.

“For the radical right, the issue is clearly migration; most Vlaams Belang voters want a much stricter migration policy. For the radical left PVDA-PTB, the issue is redistribution. These voters want strong state intervention in the economy, taxing the rich and providing more services for the poor,” says Walgrave.

Mandatory voting and the youth

In addition to being compulsory, the EU elections in Belgium will be the first in which 16-17-year-olds—who, according to recent reports, will make up 10% of the electorate—will be obliged to vote.

Asked whether young voters would make a difference in Sunday’s election, Walgrave said it would not only be those aged 16-17 “but also the first-time voters” who will be 23.

Caluwaerts was more cautious in his analysis, saying he did not expect such a big upset, pointing out that the older ‘baby boomer’ generation will continue to play a key role in elections and that young people follow similar voting patterns anyway.

Asked what the situation would be like the day after the elections, Walgrave said parties would have to “play chess on different chessboards at the same time” as “the regional and federal levels are closely linked.” Caluwaerts added that negotiating a “stable and effective coalition” would be challenging, long, and “very difficult.”

(Daniel Eck| Euractiv.de)