Berlin remains worried about Franco-German tandem despite French far-right defeat

Despite the German government’s “relief” at the defeat of the far-right in the French parliamentary elections, its ruling coalition fears that Franco-German cooperation may now suffer from a possible power vacuum in Paris, prompting some to look to Poland instead.

Despite coming first in the first round, the far-right Rassemblement national (RN) of Marine Le Pen failed to repeat its success in the second round. A victory would have required President Emmanuel Macron to name a far-right prime minister.

Facing a hung parliament instead, Macron must now find a prime minister capable of building an alternative majority. With the expectation of a longer process, he did not immediately accept the resignation of his centrist prime minister, Gabriel Attal.

On the surface, the results came as a relief to Berlin as there had previously been concerns that an RN-led cabinet would damage the close cooperation between the EU’s largest economies.

“I and the entire German government are relieved,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD/S&D) told journalists on Monday. A far-right prime minister, he said, would have been “a great challenge” to Germany’s interest in the success of the European project, which is “only possible together with France”.

Coordination between the two countries is often instrumental to forging a consensus among EU countries.

Scholz’s relief was echoed around the three-party coalition, comprising Scholz’s SPD, the Greens, and the liberal FDP.

Chantal Kopf, the Greens’ lead MP on European affairs, called the result “a good day for democracy in Europe”, while fellow Green MP Anton Hofreiter said that “Macron has held a referendum on Le Pen – and won.”

Poland ‘becomes more important’

France’s political future hangs in the balance, however: No party managed to achieve a majority in the Assemblée National and they might be forced to form a ‘European-style’ coalition to have a stable government, which the country has little experience with.

Germany’s ruling coalition partners therefore fear a power vacuum in Paris.

Thomas Hacker, the FDP’s lead MP on European affairs, voiced concerns that France would now be “occupied with itself.”

“It cannot be ruled out that cooperation between France and Germany will become more complicated and unpredictable,” he said. “Cooperation with Poland is therefore becoming increasingly important at the European level.”

Poland cooperates with France and Germany in the so-called Weimar Triangle format and last year’s return of Donald Tusk as prime minister led to a revival of trilateral meetings.

[Edited by René Moerland/Zoran Radosavljevic]

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