Berlin says EU should prepare for war by end of decade

Europe could face threats from Russia by the end of the decade, and EU countries need to build up their defence industries to be prepared, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said during an interview published on Welt am Sonntag on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend renewed his threats against Finland because it joined NATO earlier this year but rejected US estimations that Moscow will target NATO countries.

“[Vladimir Putin’s] threats against the Baltic states, Georgia and Moldova must be taken very seriously. This is not just sabre-rattling. We could be facing dangers by the end of this decade,” said Pistorius.

He added that it was time for European countries to adapt to the changed geopolitical landscape, especially as the United States could reduce their engagement on the continent.

“It will take time for the defence industry to ramp up its capacities. We now have around five to eight years to catch up – both regarding the armed forces, industry and society,” the defence minister urged.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the German government intensified efforts to rebuild its ailing armed forces, drawing also on a €100 billion special fund set up by the government in the wake of the attack.

Pistorius (SPD/S&D) was installed as defence minister at the beginning of the year, replacing Christine Lambrecht.

Pistorius presented new defence guidelines last month, setting out the goal for the Bundeswehr to become “ready for war” and for Germany to take a military leadership role as the “largest and most populous economy” in Europe.

His rhetoric caused some controversy in Germany, given the country’s pacifist culture, which was shaped by the experience of World War II.

In Saturday’s interview, Pistorius doubled down on the guidelines’ call for increased European defence collaboration.

While the 2023 defence guidelines describe the EU’s role in defence matters mainly as “complementary” to NATO’s defensive capacities “through economic, humanitarian and financial measures”, Pistorius saw an opportunity to strengthen coordination through the Weimar Triangle, an informal forum consisting of Germany, Poland and France.

“We are very interested in [adding a military component to the Weimar Triangle],” Pistorius said, adding that he invited newly-appointed Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (KO/EPP) to Berlin and was looking to travel to Poland as soon as possible in the new year.

The government’s previous pledge to revive the forum and foster closer ties with Poland had been left largely unfulfilled under Tusk’s predecessor government led by the nationalist ‘Law and Justice’ party (PiS/ECR).

Trump’s comeback: a wake-up call for EU defence

Contacted by Euractiv, Ionela Maria Ciolan, a foreign policy and defence analyst in the centre-right Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, said after Russia’s war in Ukraine, the post-Cold War European security architecture has collapsed and “we now face an authoritarian regime bent on challenging the very existence of the EU”.

“Russia’s threat extends beyond its eastern neighbourhood, as it seeks to redraw European borders by force, to absorb Ukraine and to dominate Central and Eastern Europe. This aggressive stance is reminiscent of 19th-century imperial ambitions”, she said.

The analyst estimated that isolationist sentiments in the US, fuelled by the perception of inadequate European defence contributions, could further strain transatlantic relations if Donald Trump becomes the next US president.

“In such a scenario, we can expect less American commitment to support Ukraine and a growing need for Europeans to act together and become a real security provider for the European continent and against the Russian threat”.

Ciolan highlighted the need for EU strategic autonomy in defence but stressed that Europeans should address military capability gaps within NATO and the EU.

“The concept of EU strategic autonomy is not a challenge to the United States or NATO, but an effort to strengthen European defence capabilities together. In concrete terms, EU strategic autonomy in security and defence also means strengthening the European pillar of NATO”, she added.

New Russian threats against Finland

Meanwhile, in an interview with state broadcaster Russia 1, Putin warned that Helsinki was “dragged” by the West into NATO, which creates a problem for Moscow, according to CNN.

“They [the West] took Finland and dragged it into NATO! Why did we have any disputes with Finland? All disputes, including those of a territorial nature in the middle of the 20th Century, have all been resolved long ago,” Putin said.

“There were no problems, but now there will be because we will now create the Leningrad military district there and definitely concentrate military units there,” he noted.

Putin, though, described as “non-sense” remarks recently made by US President Joe Biden, who said, “If Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there.  It’s important to see the long run here.  He’s going to keep going.”

“If Putin attacks a NATO Ally – if he keeps going and then he attacks a NATO Ally – well, we’ve committed as a NATO member that we’d defend every inch of NATO territory”, Biden said.

For Putin, Russia has no geopolitical interest in going into a conflict with NATO.

“There is no desire to spoil relations with them (NATO countries), we are interested in developing relations,” Putin said.

(Nick Alipour | Euractiv.de, Sarantis Michalopoulos | Euractiv.com)

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