Black Friday bonanza begins! Shoppers line up across nation for chance to splurge on bargains with sales expected to rise up to 4% on last year - despite credit card balances being at a 10-year high

Americans across the nation have started lining up for a chance to splurge on sales, which are expected to rise up to four percent since last year, despite credit card balances being at a 10-year high.

Retailers are kicking off the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season on Friday with a bevy of discounts and other enticements. But executives are growing concerned with a spending slowdown that could temper sales on the day after Thanksgiving as well as throughout the holidays.

The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, expects shoppers will spend more this year than last year, but their pace will slow given all the economic uncertainty.

The National Retail Federation has forecast that U.S. holiday sales will rise 3 to 4 percent for November through December, compared with a 5.4 percent  growth of a year ago. 

Still, shoppers were out on Friday before the sun rose, with long lines outside of shopping malls in New York, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Washington D.C., among others.

But consumers are now coming under more pressure from dwindling savings, increased credit card debt and still stubborn inflation. In fact, shoppers cut their buying in October, ending six straight months of gains. 

Shoppers have gotten some relief from easing inflation, but many goods and services like meat and rent are still far higher than they were just three years ago. 

The latest quarterly results from a string of retailers from Walmart to Best Buy have reported a weakening consumer. Walmart said it noticed shoppers cutting back in October and offered a muted annual sales outlook. 

Best Buy, the nation’s largest retailer, said shoppers are trading down to cheaper TVs. And Target said shoppers are waiting longer to buy items. For example, instead of buying sweatshirts or denim back in August or September, they held out until the weather turned cold.

'It’s clear that consumers have been remarkably resilient,' Target’s CEO Brian Cornell told analysts last week. 'Yet in our research, things like uncertainty, caution and managing a budget are top of mind.'

Meanwhile, online discounts should be better than a year ago, particularly for toys, electronics and clothing, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks online spending. It predicts toys will be discounted on average by 35%, compared with 22% a year ago, while electronics should see 30% cuts, compared with last year’s 27%. In clothing, shoppers will see an average discount of 25%, compared with 19% last year, Adobe said.

Analysts consider the five-day Black Friday weekend — which includes the Monday after the holiday known as Cyber Monday — a key barometer of shoppers’ willingness to spend. And Black Friday is expected to be once again the busiest shopping day of the year, according to Sensormatic Solutions, a firm that tracks store traffic. On average, the top 10 busiest shopping days in the U.S are expected to once again account for roughly 40% of all holiday retail traffic, Sensormatic said.

Stores have been increasingly pushing Black Friday-type deals all month, helping to perk up business.

Adobe Analytics reported that from Nov. 1 through Monday, consumers spent $63.2 billion online, up 5% compared with the year-ago period and outpacing its estimate of 4.8% for the two-month holiday period.