Boosting EU power integration can help Ukraine survive next winters

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, over two-thirds of Ukraine’s conventional power plant capacity has been occupied, destroyed, or attacked. This means a significant supply-demand mismatch that requires daily power cuts for the war-torn population. But power from the EU can help fix this.

Susanne Nies is head of the Green Deal Ukraine project and Oleh Savytskyi is Strategic Advisor & Founding Member of NGO ‘Razom We Stand’

Electricity is needed not only to keep the lights on but also to supply water to the population and to keep the district heating systems in cities working. In winter, when temperatures drop below zero, the electricity demand reaches maximum levels, and municipal utilities are particularly vulnerable. Their infrastructure can be damaged by freezing in the case of prolonged power outages. 

Four action areas to protect and restore Ukraine’s power supply

To prevent worse-case scenarios, there are four action areas for electricity supply security in Ukraine: air defence, generation repairs and decentralised new capacities, transmission grids for imports, and energy efficiency and demand-side management. Actions in all four areas should be applied simultaneously and as fast as possible.

Repairs and alternative supply solutions, such as adding flexible and decentralised power generation, including cogeneration and renewables, have already been discussed in several useful reports and publications.

Electricity imports from the EU provide another source of support. Since the emergency synchronisation on 16 February 2022, grid connections with EU member states have allowed for a combined 1.7 GW of import capacity. Further enhancing grid interconnection with the EU can play a vital role in overall efforts.

Finally, measures to optimise consumption and reduce peak demand in wintertime can play a significant role and should not be neglected.

Why grids need special attention

Leveraging available opportunities for a better electricity interface between Ukraine and the EU will not only provide massive, short-term benefits, literally saving people’s lives, but also paramount medium- and long-term benefits. 

For Ukraine’s resilience and economic recovery, restoring, upgrading and building new grid infrastructure can create high-quality jobs and stimulate economic growth. It can also attract investments in renewable energy projects by providing a more stable and regionally integrated market. 

To explore this action area the Green Deal Ukraїna project conducted a study, “Six options to boost power grid transfers from Continental Europe to Ukraine, for the next two winters”. In this paper we provide detailed assessment of the situation and map the potential solutions.

The winter peak load in Ukraine is expected in the range between 18 and 19 GW, depending on the ambient temperatures. According to our estimate, based on expert consultations and available data, the power deficit during the winter 2024/25 in the could be as high as 5.8 GW, nearly equal to the capacity of the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Even with all possible efforts on repairs and new builds, this huge deficit can’t be fully covered.

Six options to enhance EU-Ukraine interface 

Increased capability for both export and import will be a no-regret solution. Our analysis shows, that there are six available grid options at hand that can be implemented relatively swiftly:

• fixing grid bottleneck issues both in Ukraine and neighbouring countries, such as reconstruction and upgrades of substations in border regions;
• expanding interconnections between Poland and Ukraine, by upgrading Rzesow-Khemlnitskyi 400kV line and repurposing the existing 220kV Zamość-Dobrotvir line;
• speeding up construction and commissioning of planned transmission projects between Ukraine and EU member states, such as Slovakia and Romania;
• using advanced technologies, including dynamic line rating and power electronics, to optimise the functioning of existing grids;
• using 110 kV grids abundant in Ukraine, including five 110 kV interconnections to Moldova as an additional way to import electricity, or connect new capacities outside of Ukraine;
• addressing the bottlenecks in the supplier market for electric equipment and spare parts, needed for repairs, upgrades and construction of new grids.

The solutions outlined above can be implemented relatively swiftly if there is political will, a constructive approach from key stakeholders and sound coordination between them. 

In the short term, for the upcoming winter, an additional 0.5 GW of import capacity for Ukraine is realistically possible, even if only part of the measures listed above are implemented.

For the following winter 2025/26, with the same all-hands-on-deck approach, another 1.4 GW could be added.

Our analysis shows that reaching a total of 3.6 GW of transfer capacity from EU member states to Ukraine is a realistic goal.

It is time for action. Winter is coming to Ukraine, and Europe’s help can be essential to keeping Ukrainian cities liveable and the economy running despite ongoing Russian attacks.