Brace for five years of tax rises if Keir Starmer wins the election, says left-wing think-tank - as Tories again dismiss panicky calls for pact with Reform after 'crossover' moment in poll

Keir Starmer could oversee five years of tax rises if he wins the election, a left-wing think-tank has warned.

Labour unveiled its manifesto yesterday with plans to boost the burden by £8.5billion to pump money into services.

However, although promising no change to income tax, national insurance and VAT Sir Keir has refused to rule out moves on council tax and capital gains.

The Resolution Foundation has cautioned that the proposals set the stage for a Parliament of tax rises and public service curbs.

The comments came amid widespread criticism that none of the parties are being honest about tough choices the country faces. 

Meanwhile, ministers have moved to calm panicky Tories today after a poll showed a 'crossover' moment with Reform leapfrogging the party.

Treasury minister Bim Afolami urged voted to focus on who should be PM between him and Keir Starmer, after YouGov research showed Nigel Farage's insurgents in second place.

Although it is just one survey and had been widely anticipated, the result has fueled anxiety within Conservative circles about the campaign. 

It also derailed the party's efforts to nail Labour over tax plans after Sir Keir unveiled his manifesto yesterday.

The Resolution Foundation said: 'Their current stance sets the scene for a Parliament of further tax rises, hard to deliver spending cuts, and the risk that a weaker productivity forecast from the OBR at the next fiscal event could force an incoming Labour chancellor into fresh hard choices in order to meet their stated fiscal rule of getting debt falling by the fifth year of the forecast.'

Labour's pledges to increase public spending largely lie in departments that are already protected, such as health and social care and education, the Resolution Foundation said.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), suggested that delivering 'genuine change' in Britain – Sir Keir Starmer's flagship promise to voters – would require more funding than the policy document proposes.

Mr Johnson said some of Labour's plans were better than 'a shopping list of half-baked policy announcements' – an apparent reference to the Tories' offering – but warned it would need to put 'actual resources on the table'.

'And Labour's manifesto offers no indication that there is a plan for where the money would come from to finance this,' he said.

In a response to Sir Keir's launch of the policy document on Thursday, the IFS director said: 'This was not a manifesto for those looking for big numbers. The public service spending increases promised in the costings table are tiny, going on trivial – the tax rises, beyond the inevitable reduced tax avoidance, even more trivial.

'On current forecasts, and especially with an extra £17.5 billion borrowing over five years to fund the green prosperity plan, this leaves literally no room – within the fiscal rule that Labour has signed up to – for any more spending than planned by the current government, and those plans do involve cuts both to investment spending and to spending on unprotected public services.'

Mr Farage has gloated that he is now in charge of the main opposition, hammering home the point in an ITV debate nast night and interviews this morning.