Bulgaria holds another snap election, with more instability seen ahead

Bulgarians head to the polls on Sunday (9 June) for their sixth parliamentary election in three years, but analysts say the vote is unlikely to yield a stable government that can end prolonged political instability and unblock economic reforms.

Bulgaria, the poorest member of the European Union, has been plagued by revolving-door governments since anti-corruption protests in 2020, with a series of elections producing shaky coalitions that swiftly crumbled.

The latest opinion polls suggest no party will win a majority, setting the stage for a new round of coalition talks once the votes are in.

Polls open at 7 a.m. (0400 GMT) and will close at 8 p.m. (1700 GMT), with exit polls due to be announced immediately after polling stations close. The first partial results are expected around midnight (2100 GMT).

Bulgaria needs a period of stable, well-functioning government to accelerate the flow of EU funds into its creaking infrastructure and nudge it towards adopting the euro and fully participating in Europe’s open-border Schengen Area.

Plans to join the eurozone have already been pushed back twice because of missed inflation targets. Accession is currently slated for January 2025.

Failure to form a stable government would raise the risk of further delays, Teneo analysts said in a report last week.

Bulgaria has so far only received €1.4 billion out of €5.7 billion in available grants from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), they said.

“Further progress is uncertain as the country is required to implement politically sensitive reforms in the energy sector, which might be more difficult without a stable government,” they added.

Sunday’s vote was triggered by the collapse in March of a coalition comprising the EPP-affiliated GERB party and the reformist ‘We Continue the Change’ (PP-DB) party. ‘We Continue the Change’ are not yet member of a European political family, but have developed close relations with Renew.

The latest Gallup poll, published on Friday by the BTA news agency, puts GERB, led by long-serving former PM Boyko Borissov, ahead with 25.9% of the vote, followed by three parties in a tight race for second place.

Race for the second place

According to commentators, in these elections, the race is for the second place. The second position matters, because if the winner of the elections doesn’t succeed to form a government, the second party makes the second attempt.

PP-DB, the ultra-nationalist pro-Russian Revival party and the Movement for Rights and Freedom (DPS), which mainly represents Bulgaria’s large ethnic Turkish minority, were seen taking 15.7%, 15.5% and 15.3% of the vote respectively.

Two political parties feature in their lists individuals sanctioned for corruption under the US Magnitsky act.

Businessman and power broker Delyan Peevski leads the list of the Turkish minority party DPS (ALDE-affiliated), of which he is the co-president, in its political stronghold, the southern town of Kardzhali in the Rhodope Mountains, close to the Turkish border, as well as  in Blagoevgrad, where his party is also hoping for a good result.

Vassil Bozkhov, a businessman who had amassed a colossal fortune with his gambling business and another highly influential Bulgarian on the US sanctions list, will head the party list of his newly formed National Movement CENTRE party in Sofia and Pazardjik.

Bulgarians will also be choosing their representatives for the European Parliament, but election fatigue could be an issue. In the Gallup poll, only 40% of respondents said they planned to vote.

(With additional reporting by Georgi Gotev)

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