Bulgarian socialists see sharp drop in support ahead of EU elections

The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is seeing a sharp drop in support and is set to lose three of its five MEP seats, according to a new poll published on Wednesday ahead of the 9 June vote, which also predicts that the number of MEPs for the two largest parties – the conservative GERB and the Turkish minority party DPS – will remain unchanged.

In 2019, the socialists were the second largest political force in the country, winning 24.2% of the vote and managing to get five of Bulgaria’s 17 MEP seats. BSP member Sergei Stanishev was also chairman of the Party of European Socialists (PES).

Now, the BSP is on the decline due to the numerous internal scandals, and the party has the support of only 8.5% of the votes with a chance of obtaining only two MEP seats, according to the nationally representative Alpha Research poll.

“Bulgaria’s oldest leftist party is competing with many small leftist formations and coalitions, such as Solidarna Bulgaria (2.6%) and Levitsa (1.9%), which are taking away from its support,” the Alpha Research analysis says.

Former prime minister Stanishev and other well-known BSP figures will not be on the party lists for the vote. Stanishev – also a PES leader – criticised the current leader of the BSP, Kornelia Ninova, for using too much overly nationalist rhetoric.

The BSP list for the June elections is headed by former foreign minister and former MEP Kristian Vigenin, followed by Rumen Gechev – a deputy prime minister in the Videnov government from 1995 to 1997, which was ousted by mass street protests because of Bulgaria’s severe economic crisis and hyperinflation.

Only Tsvetelina Penkova remains on the list of current BSP MEPs. The others, including Stanishev, former investigative journalist Elena Yoncheva, Petar Vitanov, and Ivo Hristov, are at odds with party leader Ninova, and some of them are expected to join President Rumen Radev’s future political project.

Former journalist Yoncheva caused media uproar at the start of the election campaign when she accepted an offer to run for the Turkish minority party DPS, where she was placed in the seemingly unelectable fifth place. Yoncheva is known for her pro-Russian political positions, while the DPS has been staunchly pro-EU and pro-NATO since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The Alpha Research poll also shows that Bulgaria’s conservative GERB (EPP) party retains its first place in the European elections with 25.1% support or the prospect of five MEP seats.

Former EU commissioner and deputy prime minister Mariya Gabriel, who was vice-president of the EPP group in the European Parliament from 2014 to 2019, was missing from GERB’s list.

The pro-European coalition We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) is polling second, with 18.5% (four MEP seats), though both parties that form the coalition will be split between the EPP and Renew Europe groups.

The pro-Russian nationalist party Vazrazhdane (14.8%) and the Turkish minority party DPS (14.4%) are fighting for third place. Alpha Research’s analysis suggests that both parties have an equal chance of coming third.

“To a large extent, GERB and DPS will keep the number of their MEPs—five and three seats, respectively. Vazrazhadane will increase the vote of nationalists represented in the previous European Parliament (from two to three seats). The BSP will be the big loser, with most likely three of its previous seats going to the PP-DB,” according to Alpha Research.

As the elections draw closer, expected turnout is rising slightly, with 40% of Bulgarians prepared to vote in the early parliamentary elections, which will be held simultaneously with the European elections on 9 June.

The turnout for the European elections will be around 35%, but it will be higher than the turnout in 2019 when only 32.6% voted. The higher turnout is because the European elections will be held at the same time as the parliamentary elections.

(Krassen Nikolov | Euractiv.bg)

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