Climate adaptation is survival: How to accelerate action at COP28

There is substantial evidence showing that investment in adaptation provides a strong return and minimises climate costs in the future, write Mattias Söderberg and Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio. 

Mattias Söderberg is global climate lead for the Secretariat of the General Secretary of DanChurchAid. Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio is a senior advisor for adaptation and resilience at the United Nations Foundation.

The climate adaptation gap is now a full-blown emergency, according to the United Nations. The warning to the world followed “Underfinanced. Underprepared,” the latest report on climate adaptation from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which finds that progress on adaptation — from finance to planning and implementation – is stalling when it should be accelerating. Leaders have an opportunity to change course at COP 28, the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai, and ensure that we are acting at the pace and scale needed to adapt to the climate impacts already affecting every person on Earth.

The adaptation investments needed in developing countries are estimated to be between $215 billion to $387 billion per year this decade — and rising.

And yet, according to UNEP, the international finance flows directed to developing countries to support adaptation is between one-tenth and one-eighteenth of what is currently needed. Even if developed countries doubled adaptation finance, which they promised to by 2025, the adaptation financing gap would only shrink by 5% to 10% — still far short of current funding needs. And most recent evidence shows that adaptation funding actually went down 15% in 2021, according to a report released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last week.

Such massive underinvestment in adaptation is counterintuitive; there is substantial evidence to show that investing in adaptation provides a strong return and minimises climate costs in the future. Studies indicate that for every billion dollars invested in adaptation against coastal flooding there is a $14 billion reduction in economic damages. Similarly, early warning systems help communities prepare and take pre-emptive action, providing an estimated 10 to 1 return on investment, according to the Global Commission on Adaptation.

When world leaders meet at COP28, one of their main tasks will be to evaluate current efforts to tackle the climate crisis, and to agree on how to move forward — an exercise known as the Global Stock Take. When governments are assessing current adaptation efforts, most will receive the lowest score, as the UNEP report foretells. If world leaders don’t seize this opportunity to raise their ambition now, it may soon be too late.

To ensure that COP 28 delivers on adaptation, world leaders must prioritize three key actions.

First, the Global Stock Take must acknowledge the insufficient focus on adaptation to date, and developed countries must commit to develop a plan to scale up their support in the coming years. This plan must be followed by revised national budgets and allocations to support adaptation.

Second, governments must agree on a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation to guide adaptation action going forward. This framework must send a clear signal on the action and investments needed to make people, economies, and ecosystems climate-safe — investments such as Early Warning Systems for All, climate informed planning and development, resilient food, water, health and infrastructure systems, and robust social safety nets. It must include strong science- and solutions-based targets to enable the tracking of progress over time. And it must also ensure that adaptation efforts are equitable, and locally led.

Finally, given the current dismal state of adaptation action and scant global progress reducing greenhouse gases, climate-related losses and damages are substantial, and only growing more severe. COP28 must deliver a new Loss and Damage fund to help people and communities affected by climate impacts like rising sea levels, catastrophic cyclones, and devastating flooding.

Because the reality is that even if adaptation finance is scaled up rapidly, the sizeable gap described in UNEP’s adaptation report will take years to close. That’s why the Fund must be operationalised at the upcoming COP and start to deliver support as soon as possible. Vulnerable communities bearing the brunt of climate change cannot wait; funding is needed now to address losses and damages accruing in real time.

It is time to make headway for adaptation by setting ambitious, solution-oriented goals and mobilising the financing needed to make those goals a reality. That includes recognising the extent of climate-related losses and damages to date, and the urgent need to support those affected as they rebuild their lives, livelihoods, and communities.

In this era of climate extremes, adaptation is survival. With our planet’s liveability on the line, world leaders must start treating climate adaptation like the emergency it is — if they do, COP 28 can be a turning point for our shared future.