Czechs vote on an agenda driven by rising Eurosceptic Babiš ANO party

According to polls, former prime minister Andrej Babiš’s ANO party is expected to win the EU elections in the Czech Republic amid a public debate dominated by his Eurosceptic agenda, which targets the migration pact and the Green Deal.

The opinion polls have long been dominated by the ANO party (liberal Renew), currently the main opposition force on the Czech political scene.

According to recent polls, ANO could secure up to seven seats in the European Parliament, reflecting its solid support base reaching 25%.

Following closely is the SPOLU coalition, which consists of the three ruling centre-right parties – ODS (ECR), TOP 09 (EPP), and KDU-ČSL (EPP). Polls suggest that SPOLU could garner around 20% of the vote, translating to five seats.

This coalition is seen as the primary challenger to ANO, emphasising a centre-right platform that appeals to a significant portion of the electorate.

Liberal parties such as Mayors and Independents (non-affiliated) and Pirates (Greens/EFA) are projected to win two or three seats each.

The far-right coalition of Freedom and Direct Democracy (ID) and Trikolora (non-affiliated), known for its solid anti-immigration stance, could also secure around three seats.

Additionally, far left-wing coalition Stačilo! (The Left) is polling at 7.1%, which would likely give them one seat.

Euractiv’s partner, Europe Elects’ projections of the elections illustrate a similar political picture, estimating ANO at 27% followed by SPOLU at 21%.

‘Weakening’ EU migration pact, attacking Green Deal

The primary focus of the political debate in the Czech Republic is driven by the opposition ANO party (Renew), whose campaign focuses on three main topics.

First is protecting Czech sovereignty, which includes maintaining the right of veto in foreign and security policy matters.

Another key priority is to weaken the Green Deal, a stance shared by other Czech political parties, particularly SPOLU (ECR+EPP) and Freedom and Direct Democracy (ID), with the latter advocating for the complete cancellation of the Green Deal in its election program.

With the recent approval of the EU’s migration and asylum pact, combating illegal migration has become a top agenda item. The ANO party argues that the migration pact will lead to “uncontrolled migration, a surge in crime, and societal disintegration.”

In contrast, the governing parties (SPOLU, Pirates and Mayors) do not oppose the pact but call for additional measures to curb illegal entries, such as externalising migration procedures.

Also read: Outsourcing migration handling: Election fuss or a new EU paradigm?

The debates surrounding the Green Deal and migration have sparked significant conflict between the government and opposition parties, with the opposition accusing the government of endorsing EU-level green and migration legislation, endangering Czech security and stability.

On other matters, all Czech political parties with a chance of winning seats in the European Parliament advocate for reducing bureaucracy at the EU level and decreasing the regulatory burden.

EU liberals need ANO.

Polls indicate that the ANO party, whose European Parliament affiliation remains ambiguous, will likely win the most seats.

Currently, ANO is part of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party (ALDE) and the Renew Europe Group in the EU Parliament, but its leadership’s rhetoric is closer to Hungary’s Fidesz and other hard-right populist groups.

Moreover, several liberal politicians who ran for ANO in 2014 or 2019 are no longer cooperating with the party.

Although ANO’s current lead candidate, Klára Dostálová, claims the party remains liberal, there are concerns within ALDE and Renew about ANO’s membership.

Nevertheless, the ANO delegation in the European Parliament is considered substantial, making it unlikely that Renew would want to lose them, a reality acknowledged by Dostálová.

According to projections, if Renew aims to remain the third-strongest group in the European Parliament, it must fight for every mandate, as the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) also aspire to that position.

Analysts suggest Renew will try to form a pro-EU majority after the elections with the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and EU Socialists (S&D).

The prospect of joining Renew also appeals to the Mayors party, although they are reluctant to share a political family with ANO.

On the right side of the political spectrum, the ruling Czech ODS can play a significant role, being one of the founding parties of the ECR. However, the current ODS leadership is close to the EPP and is estimated to rank first at the EU level.

The Czech ODS represents a more centrist position and has long advocated for greater cooperation between the ECR and the EPP at the European level, mirroring their collaboration at the national level.

[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos/Alice Taylor | Euractiv.com]

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