EU election forecast: EPP reduces losses as Left and ID make gains

The European People’s Party (EPP) has reduced its seat loss from 16 to three and widened the gap with the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), while The Left group and ID gained seven and three seats respectively, Euractiv’s latest projection reveals.

Despite losing three seats from its current 176, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) continues to dominate the European Parliament seat projection, recovering from a loss of 16 seats in the August projection.

National parties that make up the EPP political group bumped in the polls in the past month in countries such as Estonia, Slovenia and Germany. 

In countries where elections have just taken place, Spain’s Partido Popular (PP) has climbed from 21 to 23 predicted seats due to the country’s current unstable political environment and the controversial government negotiations with the Catalan separatist parties. Meanwhile, Poland’s Civic Coalition (KO) and Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe benefit from a post-election honeymoon period, with the EPP gaining four seats compared to August, with 17 and two seats respectively.

In contrast to the EPP, the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) regressed five seats compared to the August projection in which it was set to gain three seats compared to its current 141 seat count.

This can be mainly attributed to PES and S&D recently expelling election winner Smer and third in the race Hlas due to what the European socialists have termed a rightward drift, which resulted in projections completely taking away the combined seven-seat win the two parties were supposed to bring for S&D.

Italy’s Partito Democratico is also projected to shed three seats compared to the last projection.

The EPP has its largest projected lead over S&D since February 2021, even though the gap decreases by one seat compared to the current 35-seat difference.  

As for the liberal centrist Renew Europe group, it made a three-seat gain compared to the August projection, though compared to its current seat-count in the EU parliament is set to lose eight.

Germany’s FDP and Freie Wähler are set to gain one seat compared to the August projection, where it was predicted to receive eight seats, while Czechia’s ANO and Finland’s Suomen Keskusta are now projected to receive 10 and two, respectively. In Italy, Azione enters the projection with four new seats. 

In France, Emmanuel Macron’s party, Renaissance, is in clear decline while remaining the second political force in the country and one of the main providers of seats for the Renew group.

With these results, the traditional mainstream majority of EPP, S&D and Renew remains with a combined total of 404 seats out of 720.

Extremes on the climb while Greens slide

However, the EU political group that made the most gains was The Left group, which scored seven extra seats, scoring them up to 45. 

Most remarkably, France’s Communist Party enters projections with four new seats, while La France Insoumise scores one extra seat, taking them up to eight. Sinistra Italia joins projections with one new seat, and Cyprus’ AKEL party also earns one additional seat.

On the right, while the national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) win 15 seats to a total of 80 – two less than projected in August-, the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group gains 16 seats to a total of 76, winning three more seats than in August’s projection. 

As for ID, Germany’s AfD has bagged two extra seats since August, totalling 23, while the Dutch PVV also earns two, totalling five, and France’s Rassemblement National earns one, totalling 24. 

Italy’s Lega continues to lose voters to Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia as they lose one more seat compared to the last August prediction, bringing their total to eight.

At the same time, the Greens/EFA continue their downward spiral, losing yet another seat this projection, taking them to a net loss of 21 seats. 

While Italy’s Europa Verde newly entered the projection with two seats, the two seats of Luxembourg’s Greens completely vanished, a development tracking with their catastrophic results in October’s national elections. 

Potentially breathing a sigh of relief is Damian Boeselager MEP, as Volt Deutschland enters projections with one seat. 

The recent shifts underline the dynamic nature of European politics, with national politics significantly altering the composition of the European Parliament and voter preferences continuing to shift as countries navigate their changing political landscapes.

(Max Griera and Tobias Gerhard Schminke | Euractiv.com and Europe Elects)

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