EU election projection: German SPD, far-right AfD battle for second place

4 months ago 20

Germany’s far-right AfD party, plagued by scandals in recent months, is falling behind in the polls and is now neck-and-neck with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), with both parties on 16 seats, according to the latest Europe Elects projections of June’s EU election results for Euractiv.

Check out the detailed data on the late-April projections broken down by country on Euractiv’s EU elections page.

The AfD has been steadily polling second in Germany since June 2023, just behind the conservative opposition Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), but now risks being leapfrogged by the SPD.

Even so, the projected 16 seats would still increase by seven the number of AfD lawmakers in the European Parliament compared to their current amount.

The AfD was hit by controversy and massive protests across Germany in January after it became public that party officials had attended a secret meeting in Potsdam to discuss ‘remigration’ – deporting German nationals with migrant backgrounds.

The surge of Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new left-wing party that seceded from the traditional leftist party Die Linke, may have also scooped voters from AfD.

Differentiating itself from Die Linke, Wagenknecht has struck a more socially conservative and Eurosceptic tone – a shift that has made it particularly popular with far-right and conservative voters, political scientists point out, confirming that the AfD and BSW are trying to attract the same electoral base.

Most recently, the accusations that AfD members have been on Russia’s and China’s payroll have further tightened the screws on the far-right party.

“Our international reputation is ruined,” one party source told Euractiv.

The recent scandals have undermined AfD’s support at home and jeopardised the party’s alliance with like-minded EU parties.

Most importantly, the relationship between AfD and France’s Rassemblement National, Marine Le Pen’s party, is hanging by a thread following a series of spats, with Le Pen having gone as far as to reconsider her alliance with AfD under the umbrella of the EU’s Identity and Democracy (ID) group.

Meanwhile, the SPD is projected to score 16 seats, the same as in 2019, when they posted the weakest results ever in a nationwide election.

This echoes the position of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group in the European Parliament, which current projections say is set to keep the same number of seats as they currently have, 140.

Across Europe, the Socialists seem to score small wins in several countries, such as France, Italy, and Denmark, with the currently projected four, two, and one seat more than they currently have.

However, any small win is cancelled by losses in other places, such as Spain and Hungary, which are projected to lose three and two seats, respectively, down to 18 and three MEPs.

Check out the detailed data on the late-April projections broken down by country on Euractiv’s EU elections page.

Other key developments since late-March projections

EU: EPP 183 (-1), S&D 140 (+1), Renew 86 (+2), ECR 86 (+4), ID 84 (+-0), Greens/EFA 48 (-4), Left 44 (+4).
Germany: CDU (EPP) loses two seats down to 22; Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) gains two seats down to 14.
Italy: Azione (Renew) loses its three seats down to zero; Italia Viva (Renew) gains three seats up from zero; Forza Italia (EPP) and Lega (ID) are both tied at seven seats; Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) loses two seats down to 23;
Slovakia: SMER (NI) falls from five to three seats.
Portugal: PSD (EPP) loses two seats down to six.
Romania: AUR (ECR) loses four seats down to seven; PSD (S&D) gains two seats up to ten.
Poland: Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) gains three more seats to 16; Nowa Nadzieja (NI) loses two seats down to two.