EU elections: Two scenarios for the Day After 

Two scenarios – the rise of the hard right and the return to core EU values – depict contrasting futures for the EU in a year when half the world’s electorate goes to the polls, writes Michael Leigh.  

Sir Michael Leigh, a former EU official in charge of EU enlargement, teaches at Johns Hopkins University (SAIS) in Bologna. This op-ed was adapted from one of his recent lectures.

Europe faces polarization, violence, assassination attempts, conspiracy theories, and false information as voters go to the polls in EU and national elections later this year.

National elections are still due in Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Lithuania and Romania, as well as Iceland, Georgia, and the United Kingdom. War in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as domestic political turmoil, economic worries and wavering American commitment to Europe make candidates and voters edgy. 

Recent elections have had mixed results. Some demonstrate the strength and resilience of democracy, while others have seen the rise of extreme political parties.

They are typically Eurosceptic and are opposed to immigration, climate policy, environmental protection, and support for Ukraine.

Some are pro-Russian and several warn against isolating China. Nonetheless, certain mainstream leaders have reached out to the hard right leading to compromises with parties previously considered off-limits. 

Is this is a temporary electoral hiatus in the journey towards a greener, competitive, interconnected and fairer Europe or does it signify a deeper shift in what people care about most? 

Two scenarios depict contrasting futures for the EU in a year when half the world’s electorate goes to the polls.  

Setback 

This scenario depicts a Europe where hard-right politics has become widely accepted.

Right-wing parties in France and Italy strive to project a more moderate image to calm voter anxieties, while those in Hungary and Slovakia show no signs of softening their position.

In Italy, the Netherlands, and Scandinavia, coalition governments include both center-right and far-right parties, promoting policies that were once considered unacceptable. Elections seem to confirm Marine le Pen’s claim that voters prefer authentic hard-right parties to center-right imitations. 

This has an impact both at home and abroad. The EU is known for its “soft power”, touting its economic and social model to influence other countries. But the populist surge undermines this model’s credibility reducing the EU’s influence in areas like labour standards, human rights, climate, and the regulation of artificial intelligence. 

Policy towards China shifts from strategic rivalry to cooperation as politicians sympathetic to Beijing are elected, despite concerns about human rights and the Taiwan situation. This deepens the rift between Europe and the United States. 

Under this scenario, the EU’s support for Ukraine could unravel, jeopardizing not only military and financial aid but also Ukraine’s aspirations for EU membership. The EU made offers of eventual membership to Ukraine and its neighbors hastily after Russia’s invasion as proof that it could act “geopolitically”.

However, a shift to the right could magnify the obstacles to these countries’ eventual membership. The Balkan region still struggles with long-term governance issues, despite the EU’s encouragement.  

Overall, in this scenario, the EU’s integration efforts grind to a halt, and its leaders adopt a transactional approach to trademark policies like the Green Deal, the rule of law, and human rights. 

Relaunch 

In this alternative scenario, Eurosceptic parties fail to unite, and leaders dedicated to the EU’s core values are installed. The electoral pause is brief and the EU relaunches its flagship policies, giving them a geo-economic spin.

The immediate priorities are living standards, employment, cost-of-living, investment, technology and exports.

The EU commits itself to reconstruction in Ukraine, ensuring that new infrastructure meets European green and digital standards. This helps Ukraine draw closer to the EU. The EU provides humanitarian assistance to Gaza when hostilities cease and budgets for reconstruction in its foreign assistance program. 

The new Commission bases its programme on proposals from former Italian prime ministers Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi, supported by Berlin and Paris. The aim is to leverage the EU’s large single market to compete more effectively with China and the US.

The new High Representative calls on likeminded European countries to work together on foreign and defense initiatives under an EU umbrella.  

Any apparent backtracking on core commitments, such as the European Green Deal, during the election campaign proves temporary. Most green legislation has already been passed and is difficult to reverse. Businesses have invested heavily in the green transition and promise to hold the EU accountable for its commitments.  

After the elections, the challenge from the hard right, increasingly calling itself simply “the right” pushes the shrinking political center to put aside differences and work together on a credible programme for the next five years.

Industrial cooperation, to reduce dependence on unreliable foreign suppliers, joint production of advanced weapons systems, EU procurement of energy and critical materials, and the 2030 targets for emissions reductions are high on the new Commission’s priorities. 

Membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova open late in 2024, despite efforts by the Hungarian presidency to postpone them. The Council asks the Commission for proposals on cooperation with the United Kingdom after its new government takes office following the election on 4 July. 

The road ahead 

The battle over fundamental rights and freedoms will permeate Europe in the years ahead but the rise of the hard right will not damage the continent. Europe’s focus on security across the board will intensify as it moves ahead.

Overall, the 2024 round of elections will confirm Europe’s resilience and the continued appeal of the values on which the EU is built.