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2 months ago
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EU leaders are expected to nominate on Thursday (27 June) incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as part of a top jobs deal, but some lingering resistance is still expected to be part of the negotiations.
As part of an anticipated ‘package deal’ agreed by three pro-EU centrist political groups, Portugual’s former prime minister Antonio Costa would take the European Council, and Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas would be the bloc’s new foreign policy chief.
The three main political groups – the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and liberal Renew Europe – currently have the necessary majority to get the package approved at Thursday’s summit.
While the candidates have been seen as a likely package for a few weeks, the decision is expected to come after EU leaders fell short of an agreement last week.
Swift agreement?
On the eve of the summit, EU diplomats said they did not anticipate a change in names and expected broad consensus to project a predictable and stable image of the EU’s future institutional set-up.
They also stressed that there had been sufficient time for the six lead negotiators, whose tactics over the past week have been criticised, to consult with those leaders who are still sceptical.
“There are currently contacts to ensure that all leaders support this,” one EU diplomat with knowledge of the talks said.
There could, however, still be some resistance, with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala among those not sufficiently satisfied with the deal and how it was made without their direct involvement, people involved in the preparations of the summit said.
Going it without Rome?
Meloni, especially, had lashed out against the closed-door negotiations by the three main political groups excluding her far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group from the talks, despite significant gains in June’s EU elections.
“There are those who argue that citizens are not wise enough to take certain decisions and that oligarchy is the only acceptable form of democracy – but I disagree,” Meloni told Italian lawmakers on the morning of Wednesday (26 June).
Meloni said it was “surreal” that candidates for the bloc’s top positions were presented “without even pretending to discuss the signals from voters,” which included her political group being the third-biggest in the 720-seat European Parliament.
A number of EU diplomats stressed it would be ‘constructive’ for EU unity to have all of the bloc’s EU27 leaders on board with the decision.
“The point is not to exclude anyone, but that there is a political reality emerging from the European elections, which is the confirmation of the coalition between the EPP, S&D and Renew, a coalition to which ECR does not belong,” an Elysée official said ahead of Thursday’s summit.
However, Von der Leyen does not need the support of all EU leaders as she can be confirmed with the backing of a qualified majority without the support of Meloni.
“There is no problem if we have to do this deal without Meloni,” a second EU diplomat said, a position that was echoed by many others.
An often-used parallel is the appointment of former European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, which was done against the UK and Hungary’s wishes.
While going against Rome, one of the bloc’s top five capitals, at this summit is seen as politically sensitive, the resistance has been largely seen as a negotiating tactic rather than an outward rejection of the deal.
“There was an agreement last week that the two ECR prime ministers [Meloni and Fiala] would look at the deal positively but would demand an important portfolio in the next Commission in exchange,” a third EU diplomat with knowledge of the negotiations said.
Both leaders are said to be eyeing a significant economic portfolio for their countries, with Rome also requesting an executive vice-president or vice-president title for ECR, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
According to several EU diplomats, it is likely that they will get their way.
“I, however, think it would be wrong at this summit to enter into a discussion of the composition of the College of Commissioners,” a fourth EU diplomat said.
Von der Leyen’s nomination would still need to be confirmed by the European Parliament, where some expect she might struggle to receive the necessary majority of votes.
Should she fail to receive the necessary approval in the vote, expected in mid-July, EU leaders will have one month to choose a different candidate.
Strategic agenda
EU leaders are also expected to adopt the EU’s draft strategic agenda, a policy wishlist meant to help the next European Commission prepare its own work programme for the next five years.
Once approved, the European Commission president-designate typically uses the document to draft mission letters for future commissioner-designates.
Apart from defence, the draft document, seen by Euractiv, calls for boosting the bloc’s competitiveness and preparing the bloc for enlargement.
“There is a political link between the EU’s top job and the bloc’s future Strategic Agenda, but no one is expected to make the link during the discussion,” a fifth EU diplomat said.
***Theo Bourgery-Gonse, Nick Alipour, Giada Santana, Thomas-Moller Nielsen and Alessia Peretti contributed to this story.
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