EU leaders face tough talks as Hungary digs in on rejecting Ukraine support

The EU’s common budget should not fund Ukraine, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said upon arriving in Brussels for a crucial summit on Thursday (14 December), as EU leaders are scrambling to boost their long-term support for Kyiv.

Hungary is expected to be the main stumbling block to a deal on the EU’s €50 billion financial aid package to keep Ukraine’s war-torn economy afloat and the political decision to open formal accession talks with the country.

“There is no reason to discuss anything [on accession talks] because the preconditions are not met,” Orbán told reporters as he arrived at the summit. “We’re not going to move away from this.”

The European Commission recommended to EU leaders in November that Ukraine is making good progress in enacting the necessary judicial reforms to meet EU standards and should open membership talks.

Most EU leaders want this week’s summit to approve the step, in a sign of solidarity with Ukraine 22 months after Russia launched an all-out invasion of the country.

They also want to approve the €50 billion financial aid package for Kyiv.

Speaking about financial aid, Orbán said in English that “in the long term, and [for] a bigger sum of money, I decide that we should give it outside [the EU budget].”

EU officials have started looking into an alternative solution should the idea of backing the Ukraine package as part of the EU budget fall through, outside the EU’s common budget, but have publicly stressed that Plan A is to convince Orbán to drop his veto.

“If the EU budget is not approved now, we will find a way to bridge over the period [until it is] or do it bilaterally at 26 or 25 member states,” one EU diplomat told Euractiv.

Another diplomat, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, added that “there are other financing instruments, special purposes vehicles, macro-financial assistance, the continuation of the macro-financial assistance”.

However, an off-budget instrument would last only one year, be more expensive, and take longer to set up, EU officials warned on the eve of the summit.

“We should not postpone [the decision]. It has enormous implications on the economy, Ukraine needs enormous flows to preserve the economy,” said Lithuanian President Gitas Nauseda.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas asked leaders to “right now, focus on Plan A. […] If we don’t reach an agreement, then we can think about other options”.

Eyes on Orbán’s trades

Arriving at the summit in Brussels, EU26 leaders said they were prepared for a long summit if needed to overcome Orbán’s opposition.

Several leaders stressed that the decision to unlock around €10.2 billion in frozen funds to Hungary is not meant as a bargaining chip in talks with Orbán.

“The timing is not good,” Ireland’s Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said. “Because the impression is that it is an incentive to Hungary to support certain positions and might even work, but it’s not the case,” he added.

His stance was seconded by Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, who said he did not want to “get into some type of bazaar logic where we should be trading one thing with another”.

“This is about security for Ukraine, providing them with military and financial support, and this is the discussion,” De Croo said.

Adding pressure, Finnish Prime Minister Petri Orpo also said that “what we decide or do not decide is a clear signal to Moscow, Washington, and Beijing, that is why we have to decide to support Ukraine”.

But unless Orbán backs down quickly, the EU summit – slated for Thursday and Friday – could fail or drag on into the weekend.

“I have packed many shirts,” Orpo said.

Orbán is not the only leader reluctant about opening enlargement talks with Ukraine, one senior EU diplomat said, naming Slovenia, Slovakia, Austria, and Italy as having voiced certain reservations.

Austria is leading a group of ‘enlargement-friendly countries’ in favour of opening accession talks with Bosnia-Herzegovina, which has not fulfilled the requested criteria, according to the European Commission.

Newly arrived Poland Prime minister Donald Tusk is also trying to convince Orban to support starting accession talks with Ukraine, the country’s EU minister said.

EU leaders are also expected to hold long negotiations on the review of the EU’s overall seven-year budget, beyond the issue of Ukraine’s aid.

The EU countries are looking to find a consensus and meet the needs of all, even though each country has different priorities, such as migration, aid for protection in case of natural disasters, or industry competitiveness.

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico told reporters that “we need investment on the secondary impact of the war in Ukraine”.

“We believe that countries like Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland could have some extra money to reconstruct bridges and roads close to Ukraine,” he said after his meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

A top up of the military mobility budget, put forward by the Spanish EU Council presidency during the negotiations, was deleted by the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, earlier this week, according to documents seen by Euractiv.

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]

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