EU significantly off-track from 2030 climate goal, Commission warns

Based on current policies, the European Union will achieve a 51% emissions reduction by 2030, falling short of the EU’s legally-binding 55% objective, according to a European Commission analysis of national energy and climate plans submitted thus far.

Final plans from the 27 EU countries must be submitted by June 2024 and only 21 of them were submitted on time for the Commission to analye them in detail, but the initial picture drawn by Brussels looks bleak.

“It is clear we need stronger commitments in the final plans to put us firmly on the right track to climate neutrality,” said Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra in a statement released on Monday (18 December).

Particularly in agriculture, heating and road transport – currently known as the “effort sharing sectors” – the target of a 40% reduction will be missed by a whopping 6.2 percentage points, according to the Commission’s analysis.

Similarly, the bloc’s 42.5% target for renewable energy by 2030 could be missed by up to 4 percentage points, the EU executive found.

And carbon sequestration targets, like in forests and peatland, of 310 million tonnes CO2-equivalent are set to be missed by 40 to 50 million tonnes, the Commission found.

Most egregious is how far off the EU is from meeting its 11.7% energy efficiency improvement target. The Commission projects a 5.8% improvement, days after the EU assumed a global leadership rule in calling for triple renewables and doubled energy efficiency improvements at COP28 in Dubai.

“We have shown leadership at COP28, and this is the chance to demonstrate that we are ready to deliver on the ground and firmly fight climate change,” said the EU’s newly-appointed Green Deal chief, Maroš Šefčovič.

The Commission’s findings match those of the European Environmental Agency, which released an urgent warning to policymakers on Monday as well.

Campaigners are similarly alarmed. “Today’s assessment reveals that current plans are not enough to hit EU’s climate targets,” said the Clean Air Task Force (CATF), a non-profit group.

All eyes on Central and Eastern Europe

The Commission analysed a total of 21 draft plans that were submitted in time. Another three came in past the deadline, and thus didn’t fully feature into the assessment.

Reasons for the delays are often linked to national politics. Austria’s draft plan, for example, was recalled amid an ongoing domestic political dispute within the centre-right and green government coalition.

Bulgaria, Latvia and Poland failed to submit their draft plan by 14 December, the EU executive’s deadline. They were called out by the NGO CEE Bankwatch, who said they are “dragging their feet on phasing out fossil fuels.”

The group noted that CEE countries are falling behind in terms of climate targets. Hungary has given itself until 2029 to phase out coal, later than previously envisioned, while Slovakia remains ambiguous on the matter.

Poland has yet to reassess its controversial 2049 exit date for coal, while Bulgaria considers withdrawing its announced exit date of 2038, according to the NGO.

Beyond coal, there is even less concrete action in these countries.

“Only a few include a phase-out date for gas, as in the case of the Czech Republic, but with limited details on the approach,” CEE Bankwatch added.

The warning by CEE Bankwatch echoes an earlier report by the European Court of Auditors which alerted in June about the risk that EU countries will miss their 2030 climate goals.

[Edited by Nathalie Weatherald and Frédéric Simon]

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