European elections in Lithuania largely depend on turnout

3 months ago 16

Although the centre-left Social Democratic Party (LSDP) is currently polling well ahead of Lithuania’s other parties in the run-up to the European elections, the expected low voter turnout due to election fatigue could favour the current ruling Homeland Union-Christian Democrats of Lithuania (EPP).

According to the Europe Elects overview of national polls, the opposition Social Democrats LSDP (S&D) are currently in the lead with 27% and are expected to gain one seat in addition to their current two.

However, turnout will have a significant impact on the outcome of the election, in which Lithuanians will choose their next 11 MEPs, according to Ramūnas Vilpišauskas, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.

“If not many people bother to come, then this might be favourable to the conservative party, to the Homeland Union-Christian Democrats, (…) because most political scientists agree that this party has the most stable base of voters who come to vote no matter what the weather is,” Vilpišauskas told Euractiv.

The centre-right TS-LKD (EPP) group, the main party in the ruling coalition, is currently in second place with 14%, according to Europe Elects data, and is set to lose one of its current three seats in the European Parliament.

A positive outlook is predicted for the Green parties, with newcomers, the Democratic Union “Vardan Lietuvos” (Greens/EFA) polling to obtain two MEP seats, and the Union of Lithuanian Farmers and Greens (Greens/EFA) retaining its one seat in the current mandate.

At the same time, the liberal Liberalų Sąjūdis (Renew Europe), Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D), and Darbo Partija (NI) are all expected to win one seat each.

Election fatigue

Despite the LSDP’s current popularity, the outcome might still change depending on turnout, warns Vilpišauskas.

With two rounds of presidential elections held in May and parliamentary elections scheduled for October, the European elections appear to be one more election in an election-packed year.

“The presidential elections are the ones which are the most popular. Five years ago, they were on the same day, and the turnout for the presidential elections was around 52%, so it was the same for the European Parliament elections,” explains Vilpišauskas.

However, the last time the European elections were held separately – as they were this year – was in 2009. Just under 21% of Lithuanians eligible to vote showed up to cast their ballot, resulting in one of the lowest turnouts in the EU.

“Since we just had two rounds of presidential elections, I suspect that fewer people will bother to come to vote on 9 June. It could be less than 30% even,” says the expert.

Little debate

Another factor likely downplaying the importance of the European elections is the lack of visible campaigning, other than the debates organised by public broadcaster LRT.

According to Vilpišauskas, the parties focus on the upcoming parliamentary elections, seeing the European elections as “an opportunity for the parties to show themselves and hope that the voters will remember them in the autumn”.

While security and defence are currently the most important issues for Lithuanians, with 60% of respondents citing them as the most important, according to a recent Eurobarometer, Vilpišauskas suggests that the parties’ positions on these issues are similar and unlikely to be decisive.

“Most parties – both in position and opposition, at least most parliamentary parties – have very similar views on geopolitics. It is not something that differentiates them really (…) I am not sure this will be a dividing issue,” said the expert.

Another Eurobarometer survey found Lithuanians to be among the most enthusiastic about EU membership, which, according to Vilpišauskas, could be another reason for so little debate about the European elections.

“If people are happy about the EU, they really don’t bother debating,” the expert said.

“Boring, which is good,” he added.

[Edited by Daniel Eck/Alice Taylor]