Far-right win in France would pose ‘unprecedented challenge to EU’s Franco-German engine

France’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN, ID) of Marine Le Pen seeks to reassure that nothing will change in the Franco-German relationship if a prime minister from their ranks takes over in France, trying to address fears that the EU’s engine could grind to a halt.

With the RN projected to come out far ahead in Sunday’s (30 June) snap parliamentary election, President Emmanuel Macron could be forced to instate a prime minister from the far-right for the first time in France‘s post-war history.

Officials fear this would also impact Franco-German cooperation, which has been crucial for EU decision-making.

“I am worried about the elections in France, (…) and I hope that parties that are not Le Pen are successful in the election,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Sunday when asked about the matter.

Chantal Kopf, lead MP on European affairs for the Greens, Scholz‘s junior partner in government, told Euractiv there were “concerns that we could temporarily lose a reliable partner.”

Despite recent rocky relations, coordination between the EU‘s two largest economies is often required to forge wider consensus, as happened recently with the EU’s electricity market reform.

Such coordination relies on president-chancellor coordination and a thicket of finely calibrated, ritualised links.

Most notably, the two cabinets coordinate annually at Ministerial Councils prepared by the foreign ministries. According to people present, an agreement at last October’s meeting laid the groundwork for the EU energy market reform.

Intensive coordination at risk

A spokesperson of the German foreign ministry told Euractiv that the teams of the French and German European ministers traditionally include one official from the other country in a privileged arrangement. The chancellery also employs a French official in its European department, the only foreign official there.

“If intensive coordination between the largest EU member states is impaired, this would also damage the unity of the EU and its ability to act,” surmised Yann Wernert, an expert on Franco-German affairs at the Jacques Delors Centre.

If an RN prime minister—possibly Jordan Bardella—came into power, a significant part of this Franco-German coordination could pass to the far right, as they would appoint at least some new ministers, potentially even the foreign minister.

Outwardly, the RN has vowed to uphold close links to Germany: “Absolutely, we’ll maintain the [Ministerial Councils], and of course, we’ll continue our exchanges with Germany,” Alexandre Loubet, one of Le Pen’s deputies in the French parliament and RN’s EU campaign director told Euractiv, calling Germany “a major trading partner.”

However, there is reason for doubt, as the RN has historically been sceptical about the relationship. When then-chancellor Angela Merkel and Macron signed the 2019 Aachen Treaty, a comprehensive cooperation agreement, Le Pen spoke of the “betrayal of France”, which “lets our sovereignty crumble.”

A new Hungary?

Where the RN is in charge, it would raise questions if the countries could find a joint “vision for Europe”, said Claire Demesmay, a Franco-German expert at the Centre Marc Bloch. This at a time when the Union needs a common line on defence, competitiveness, and enlargement.

Kopf outlined notable policy splits, saying she is particularly concerned about the “potential impact on the French budget, for example, about support for Ukraine and the general weakening of France’s European policy.”

The RN is also critical of enlargement and has vowed to cut France’s EU contributions.

Everyday coordination, “which is taken for granted, would also suddenly be called into question”, Wernert said.

He noted that the RN would be keen to maintain an appearance of order to avoid scaring away voters ahead of the French presidential elections in 2027.

“There are European examples of this, such as PiS in Poland and Viktor Orbán in Hungary, where governments with illiberal ambitions initially adapted to norms to some extent,” he said. Borders were then shifted gradually.

Under the hard-right PiS, periodical German-Polish cabinet meetings had initially continued but have since not been called for six years, while trilateral Weimar Triangle coordination with France also fell dormant.

Wernert pointed out early signs: The RN promised to confine border-free travel under Schengen to EU nationals, which would, however, require border checks for everyone in practice. This could have a serious impact on Franco-German cross-border collaboration, he said.

Demesmay saw question marks over diplomat exchanges, should the RN gain control over them: “Will German officials still be allowed to attend French ministerial meetings, where the trust is very high? Are they still welcome?”

“An RN-led French cabinet would represent an unprecedented challenge for Franco-German relations,” Wernert concluded.

*Paul Messad contributed to reporting

[Edited by Aurélie Pugnet/Alice Taylor]

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