Fico’s assassination attempt reshuffles cards in Slovakia’s EU election campaign

An assassination attempt against Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on 15 May has had a significant impact on the electorate, recent polls suggest, as his Smer party seems to have gained considerable ground ahead of the EU elections.

Before the assassination attempt, most polls were predicting a clear victory of the leading opposition party, pro-Western liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS/Renew).

Fico’s Smer and his coalition partner Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas (both S&D but suspended) followed, with significant differences.

For example, in the poll from AKO agency, PS scored 27.2%, Smer 15.2% and Hlas 14.2%, and other parties fewer than 8%. An NMS poll showed PS scoring 23.4% and Smer 17.3%.

However, after the shooting, the political landscape changed.

According to the Ipsos agency, whose poll was conducted after 15 May, Fico’s party is now leading with 24.4%, followed by PS, which stands at 23.5%.

Based on these estimates, both parties would equally gain four seats in the EU parliament.

Other parties scored less than 10%, with ruling Hlas and far-right Republika estimated to gain two seats each and opposition parties KDH, SaS, and SLOVENSKO one seat.

Foreign policy is a topic for the first time

Unlike previous EU elections, where the discussion was mainly focused on domestic matters, this time, analysts say foreign policy has become a matter in the public debate due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

At an online event recently organised by Euractiv Slovakia, political scientist Aneta Világi noted that “for the first time, EU foreign policy is a critical topic ahead of the EU elections in Slovakia”.

“Until now, the campaigns for the previous EU elections have been about issues closely related to our domestic problems,” she pointed out.

She added that Slovakia’s stance towards the war in Ukraine is part of the election campaign for the third time in a few months, as this topic already resonated before the parliamentary and presidential elections in September 2023 and April 2024, respectively.

To win the latter, Peter Pellegrini attempted to portray his rival, pro-EU diplomat Ivan Korčok, as a “warmonger” who, as president, would send Slovak men to fight in Ukraine.

Political scientist Jozef Lenč explained that these EU elections still heavily revolve around the situation in Slovakia—mostly the assassination attempt against Fico—as well as “the policies of his government, which are perceived as a threat to Slovak democracy.”

“In the campaign, the political parties will outdo each other in terms of which of them will protect Slovakia more – from real or imagined evil – and who will be the guarantee of peace in Europe. The campaign’s theme will be fear-mongering once again,” Lenč noted.

He said that to spread this fear, several topics might be used, such as the abolishment of the veto, which the majority of Slovak parties oppose, or a threat to Slovak membership in the EU.

“The theme of the elections will, therefore, be Slovakia and the ongoing ideological struggle over the shape of Slovakia in the EU,” he concluded.

How will Slovakia affect the EU parliament?

In the context of the future composition of the EU parliament, a decisive factor related to Slovakia will be which faction the Smer MEPs will join, Lenč said.

The European Socialists suspended Smer and Hlas in October 2023, citing their pro-Russian views, far-right costing, and not representing any more socialist values.

It is still uncertain what their future EU plans are as both parties have cut communication with mainstream media in the country, including Euractiv Slovakia.

Miroslav Wlachovský, a former foreign minister, said Smer’s candidate list might attract some EU lawmakers who are more inclined to the alternative extreme than to true social democracy.

Regarding the next Slovak EU commissioner, Fico has reiterated his support for the present EU Commissioner, Executive Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič.

In early April, Šefčovič told Euractiv Slovakia he is open to the possibility:

“If there is interest and space for me to continue, I am ready to continue applying for trust – especially when it is necessary to think strategically about the future of the European economy, including the Slovak one.”

(Natália Silenská | Euractiv.sk, edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Alice Taylor)

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