French elections: EU capitals fear Euroscepticism spillover

4 months ago 19

A potential victory of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) in France’s snap legislative elections has sparked fears of a wider Euroscepticism wave across the bloc, compounding the far-right’s surge in the recent EU elections.

In Europe’s south, the French far right’s likely win in the election on 30 June and 7 July is seen as a wake-up call for progressive pro-EU parties to join forces, while eastern Europe highlights security concerns, especially in light of Donald Trump’s probable return to power in Washington.

In Berlin, social democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz hopes Marine Le Pen’s party will not win.

The coordination between the EU’s two largest economies is often required to forge wider consensus and oil the EU’s decision-making engine.

Yann Wernert, an expert on Franco-German affairs at the Jacques Delors Centre, told Euractiv that an RN-led French cabinet would represent an “unprecedented challenge for Franco-German relations”.

With an RN prime minister—possibly Jordan Bardella—a significant part of this Franco-German coordination could pass to the far right, who would appoint at least some new ministers, potentially even the foreign minister.

Visegrad focuses on EU security

In Eastern Europe, some express fears about a potential impact on the functioning of the EU, especially in security matters.

“At a time of ongoing Russian aggression, this is not good news. This is especially true given that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could further complicate the security situation,” Tomáš Valášek, an MP for PS (Renew) and former ambassador of Slovakia to NATO, told Euractiv Slovakia.

In Poland, Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz warned during the Weimar Triangle meeting with France and Germany that the result of the French elections will be critical to “ensure EU security”, adding that “support to the [EU’s] Eastern front is necessary, it’s not open for debate”.

For Poland, there might be domestic political implications too: Should Germany’s far-right AfD fail to set up a new group in the European Parliament, the Polish Confederation party might be willing to join the anti-EU Identity and Democracy group.

In Warsaw, critics suggest that the stronger the RN is at home, the better for the Confederation.

Spaniards on alert

In Spain, the progressive coalition of socialist PSOE and leftist Sumar warned that an “ultra” rhetoric could spread across Europe.

Domestically, this could reinforce the “patriotic” discourse of the far-right VOX party, the third largest force in parliament, and of the newly formed far-right party Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF, The Party is Over).

France, the destination of 15.4% of Spanish exports, is a strategic partner for Spain and political events in France are followed with great interest in Madrid because, according to several analysts, “what happens in France, in the end, almost always ends up happening in Spain”.

A Le Pen victory could impact the situation with Spain’s controversial amnesty law and Catalan separatists.

Marine Le Pen recently told El Español that RN will be “implacable” with former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, who currently lives in the south of France, from where he is orchestrating a pro-independence political strategy.

Italian, Greek progressives get inspired

In Rome, an RN victory would be well-received by Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, whose far-right Lega party shares the same European Parliament group as Le Pen’s RN.

When it comes to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party, things are more complex.

Although Le Pen and Meloni have clashed in the past, recent months have seen a rapprochement, with both highlighting their “common ground” and expressing hope for a united right-wing front in Europe to counter the left.

A decisive signal could come for Italy’s two main opposition parties, the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement, who have struggled in recent years to form a stable alliance, oscillating between cooperation and rivalry.

A strong result for the left-wing coalition in France – who are expected to finish second, behind RN – could provide the crucial impetus for a more enduring alliance between them.

In Athens, Greek progressive opposition parties were inspired by the hastily arranged collaboration of the French left.

“The snap [French] elections came as a surprise, and the political forces were forced to lock themselves in a room and come out with a political agreement on the program and with candidates in all regions”, Nikos Pappas, a lawmaker of the main opposition party, the leftist Syriza, told Euractiv.

After years of rivalry, talks are ongoing between Syriza and the socialist Pasok about a potential collaboration to overthrow the ruling conservative New Democracy (EPP).

Last but not least, in Bulgaria, political scientist Parvan Simeonov, executive director of the Gallup International Balkan pollster, warned of the potential rise to power of a party project of President Rumen Radev, who uses the same pro-Russian rhetoric as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

The victory of the far-right in France could help Radev, strengthening Euroscepticism in Bulgarian society before the end of his presidential term in early 2027.

[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos /Zoran Radosavljevic]