From Trump-whisperer to NATO chief: Rutte’s task to navigate troubled waters

Incoming NATO boss Mark Rutte has only a few months to prepare to lead the Western military alliance amid stormy waters as members on both sides of the Atlantic seek to impose their priorities on the new captain of the ship. 

Available since his fourth Dutch government fell last summer, the experienced prime minister was the US-backed candidate to succeed incumbent Jens Stoltenberg from the outset.

Traditionally, US support would be an essential part of the selection process. But not for Rutte, who did not get the job as secretary-general easily.

After fourteen years of leading Dutch governments that often sharply criticised allies and partner countries, Rutte had to offer favours to other NATO members such as Hungary, Turkey, and Eastern Europeans to ultimately gain full support.

Those debts must be repaid once he takes over the helm of the world’s largest military alliance on 1 October.

A “Rutte human resources plan” is meant to put additional Easterners — and more generally, the least represented countries, also from the south — in high-level positions, three NATO diplomats said. This means he is expected to offer some of them assistant secretary-general positions.

Turkey is unlikely to forget its two requests to Rutte before giving him the green light: keep counter-terrorism—NATO’s other key threat next to Russia—high on the agenda and work to limit ally-to-ally restrictions in arms exports. 

As part of that, Stoltenberg and then Rutte agreed last month on Hungary’s opt-out from military support for Ukraine without consulting other allies, the same three NATO diplomats said.

A fateful summit

As a long-serving Dutch leader, Rutte has sat at the NATO table before, seen counterparts come and go, and witnessed the relationship with Russia turn sour and ties with China become problematic. 

But it was one specific episode that saw him considered a top pick for his new role.

At a tense 2018 NATO summit, former US president Donald Trump derailed a session about Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO future by issuing a warning that Washington would leave the alliance if European members did not start spending more on their own defence. 

French President Emmanuel Macron and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel then attempted to reason with Trump, pointing out that ramping up Europe’s defence budgets would take time. 

According to people familiar with the talks, Rutte rescued the situation by assuring Trump that defence spending was increasing, mostly thanks to the US leader.

When Trump stepped in front of the press that late afternoon, he spoke of “tremendous progress” – and claimed the success for himself. 

The real winner that day, however, was Rutte, whose move earned him the nickname of “Trump whisperer.” 

As NATO’s next boss, his tasks will likely be far more complex than just balancing his two core missions of representing NATO externally and keeping it in order internally, several NATO diplomats said.

They stressed that it will especially include listening to all members of the Western military alliance, not just the heavyweights.

Trump-whispering 

Rutte’s most challenging task, all the NATO diplomats quoted in this piece said, will be keeping the US aboard NATO at a time when Russia aims to divide the club. 

Especially as Washington, the most significant military power in the alliance, is going through a domestic political crisis with the election run-off between the incumbent, health-stricken US President Joe Biden and NATO-sceptic Trump.

Over the past years, Stoltenberg has earned respect by keeping the former US president from undermining the promise of NATO’s mutual defence. But Trump’s repeated threats not to defend his transatlantic allies over their low defence spending has left allies spooked. 

Rutte will be under pressure to play the same role if needed. 

Work has already started to “Trump-proof” the Western military alliance by shaping NATO’s public messaging in a positive way to answer Trump’s biggest ask: a fairer burden-sharing of the price for collective security. 

NATO members have significantly increased their defence expenditure over the past few years, with 23 now meeting the 2% GDP threshold.  

Ironically, it was under Rutte’s consecutive governments that the Netherlands had traditionally cut defence budgets for over a decade and advocated for fiscal discipline. The Hague reached NATO’s spending target only recently.

NATO diplomats are adamant that the recent spending hike is not driven by a particular US president but primarily by the need to respond to Russia. 

“Focusing on the budget issue will help with the US bond,” one of them told Euractiv. 

At the same time, the Biden administration has recently dropped its opposition to including military aid to Ukraine in the calculations, a move that could easily make the numbers skyrocket even further. 

Rutte will also have to keep China high on the agenda, a key issue for Washington, especially since Trump’s first term, while answering Europeans’ calls—especially from France—not to expand NATO’s tasks to the Indo-Pacific. 

Keeping the East, South content 

Rutte may owe his appointment to Washington, but he must remember to keep the smaller Eastern European countries’ content, several NATO diplomats stressed.

With the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine two years ago, the NATO members on the Eastern Flank – in the past decried as Russia hawks – quickly gained weight in shaping the alliance’s policy. 

Recently, four countries from the region proposed to build a ‘defence line’ along the bloc’s Eastern border with Russia and Belarus, but the proposal met with scepticism over the feasibility and cost from some Western European leaders – including Rutte. 

Managing their grievances could be one of Rutte’s biggest challenges, not only regarding representation in high-level positions but also in catering to their increasing demands to protect that part of Europe from Russia’s military and hybrid threats. 

As a former EU leader, Rutte is seen as someone who can improve the EU-NATO relationship, especially as Brussels looks to expand its role in security and defence industrial policy. 

A total of 23 out of 32 NATO members would like to see the two organisations work better together, to avoid loopholes and duplications, including on tackling cyber threats and hybrid attacks.

One big step would be for both organisations to exchange information and documents, a push that remains on hold over the Turkish-Cypriot issue.

Pragmatism rules

In his early years as prime minister, Rutte professed a personal dislike of international politics, deeming it too messy and unfruitful for Dutch interests.

Facing the long list of compromise-building tasks, the Rutte, who entered the Dutch prime minister’s office more than a decade ago, would likely not have been attracted to the NATO post.

That changed especially after Russia downed passenger flight MH17 above Ukraine in 2014, killing 298 mainly Dutch citizens, which transformed Rutte’s stance towards Moscow and altered his perception of the value of European cooperation. 

Rutte gradually discovered that he could contribute to international politics by using the skills he had developed in a fragmented Dutch political landscape.  

He became a pragmatic coalition builder, recognised as an avid solution-seeker, and used to adapting to political change around him in both EU and US relations. 

NATO members wanted an experienced person to lead the alliance, a former leader, one of theirs. Time will tell if Rutte can both manage expectations and deliver results.

[Edited by René Moerland/ Alice Taylor] 

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