German AfD expulsion opens Pandora’s Box in EU politics

With the AfD’s expulsion, the far-right Identity and Democracy party got rid of one of its most controversial members to avoid losing voters ahead of the European elections but the party is still far from being considered a potential partner by the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), which is set to dominate the next legislature.

After months of internal disputes, the far-right Identity and Democracy group (ID) in the European Parliament made a drastic decision and expelled the German AfD from its ranks.

In recent months, the German far-right party has been hit by a series of scandals, culminating in the AfD’s lead candidate, Maximilian Krah, who recently said “I will never say that anyone who wore an SS uniform was automatically a criminal.”

The move to expel the AfD is mainly symbolic, given that the parliament’s term is about to end in two weeks, and is seen as part of a broader attempt to make Europe’s most right-wing group more presentable.

“The main ID parties, especially RN and Lega, were afraid that the AfD lead candidate statement on the SS could be used against them and lose many votes,” Edoardo Bressanelli from the Scuola Sant’Anna of Pisa told Euractiv.

ECR getting smaller?

According to poll aggregator Europe Elects, the ID is losing the 16 lawmakers that the AfD is expected to get. This move could put the ID in an advantageous position if parties were to leave the other group that is harbouring hard-right parties: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).

“If the ECR wants to cooperate with the other main groups, it may have to get rid of the parties which do not fit the three criteria set by von der Leyen,” Bressanelli said.

Some of these parties could then “join ID”, he added.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has so far laid out three criteria for right-wing parties to be eligible as partners: They have to be pro-EU, adhere to the rule of law and be in favour of NATO and support for Ukraine.

Even with the AfD being gone, the ID parties are far from reaching these criteria, with Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, for instance, insisting that France has to pull out of NATO.

Von der Leyen reiterated this position during yesterday’s election debate.

Furthermore, she emphasised that most ID parties, including French Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, were “friends with Putin” and thus ruled them out from future alliances.

While Le Pen has recently eyed a closer alliance with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the EPP that von der Leyen belongs to made it clear that, in their eyes, the ID is not getting any more reliable by kicking out the AfD.

The ID was only getting rid of the “most crazy parts” of their far-right group, several EPP party sources told Euractiv, adding that cooperation with them would remain a taboo.

Thus, the creation of a single far-right group that includes all the parties on the right of the EPP is unlikely—at least if the ECR wants to become a more credible partner in the new European Parliament.

“Paradoxically, ECR may have to get smaller to have a greater say and influence in the next legislature,” Bressanelli said, adding that some of the parties to leave the ECR could join ID. 

EU socialists put pressure on von der Leyen

Several EPP sources have told Euractiv that the EU centre-right does not only eye a collaboration with Meloni’s Brothers of Italy but also with other “healthy elements” from that part of the political spectrum that respect the three red lines and wish to break away from far-right.

At yesterday’s debate, von der Leyen hit at Poland’s far-right Konfederacja party, assuring the audience that she will never conclude a coalition with them in Poland.

She did not mention the main opposition PiS party (ECR), which is in intense confrontation with Donald Tusk’s centre-right party (EPP).

Von der Leyen also repeated the argument that one should wait to see how the new political balances will look like in the EU Parliament after the elections, confirming that it’s still unknown whether new groups may emerge.

For their part, the EU socialists, who are expected to rank second, have made it clear that they cannot sit around the same table with other pro-EU forces—EPP and EU Liberals—if members of either ECR or ID are present.

In a letter published on Thursday (23 May), socialists, including Frans Timmermans and French Socialist candidate Raphaël Glucksmann, ruled out any collaboration with the far right.

In a statement to Euractiv on Wednesday, EU socialist secretary-general Giacomo Filibeck called on the EPP to see the “true face” of Meloni sitting next to “Orbán and Le Pen” at the congress of Spanish far-right VOX in Madrid last Sunday.

The EU socialists’ firm position on the matter may put von der Leyen in a difficult position given that she needs their votes to be re-elected in the EU Commission presidency.

(Oliver Noyan, Roberto Castaldi, Sarantis Michalopoulos – Edited by Alice Taylor | Euractiv)

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