German chancellor’s party banks on far-right fears for EU election comeback 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz‘s ailing SPD bets on fears of a looming far-right shift to turn around underwhelming ratings and deliver a much-needed boost to Europe’s socialists, even though polls suggest otherwise and analysts remain unconvinced.

The party is running the countdown for the official kick-off of its EU election campaign in Hamburg on Saturday (27 April).

Polls have been looking dire, with the SPD – in charge of an unpopular coalition government – appearing stuck between 14% and 16%. But officials are still peddling the narrative that the start of the campaign will help them engineer a comeback.

Hopes rest to a great extent on the far right—or rather increasing resistance to it—against the backdrop of a looming right-wing shift at the EU elections.

“In Germany, we have a very different campaign mode now (…) because hundreds of thousands of people are taking to the streets [to protest against the far-right],” SPD lead candidate Katarina Barley told Euractiv.

Germany has been shaken by revelations of links between the far-right AfD and ethno-nationalist groups and foreign powers.

“My party is more than 160 years old, and we’ve always fought against any kind of (…) fascism. This is very important for us and motivates us and our voters and members,” Barley said.

The chancellor also repeatedly raised the threat of the far-right in recent pre-campaign appearances.

For the SPD, it would be important to bounce back ahead of next year’s German elections. It would also help the European socialists in a precarious situation, as their other large delegation, the Spanish PSOE, stands on the verge of a crisis, with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez considering resignation.

Polls show that voters align with the SPD’s campaign talking points, which also include “peace and security, [economic] justice and social cohesion”, as Barley put it in the party’s campaign ad, unveiled on Thursday (25 April).

According to the latest Eurobarometer poll, ‘Defence and security’ and ‘Democracy and the rule of law’ are the top three campaign priorities of Germans. 

Running as a lead candidate for the second time, Barley believes that her profile fits the spirit of the campaign, too. The former German justice minister and current vice-president of the European Parliament tirelessly emphasises her Brussels record of taking on autocratic attacks on democracy and the rule of law in Eastern Europe.

Are polls finally going to move?

But election polls have stubbornly refused to move, six weeks ahead of the ballot on 9 June.

Recent, smaller improvements were not enough, Christian Petry, the SPD’s lead MP on European affairs, admitted, as he told Euractiv that the party needs to communicate its profile more clearly.

Observers are sceptical that polls will move, however.

“The SPD’s difficult ratings are no snapshot, but a long-term trend to its disadvantage,” political scientist Uwe Jun of the University of Trier told Euractiv, pointing to the SPD’s estrangement from its working-class voter base – a problem haunting many socialist parties.

“In the short term, the low reputation of the [government] coalition will also affect the SPD,” he added.

The ratings of the SPD’s ‘traffic-light’ coalition with the liberal FDP and the Greens have fallen to 32% between all three parties, following a year of infighting and unpopular policy decisions.

Scholz’s shadow

However, the party evidently considers it an asset that Scholz is the figurehead of the national government.

When Barley takes the stage in Hamburg on Saturday, she will share it with Scholz. The two are also together on the party’s posters and the election ad, which shows the pair as “experienced and competent” chess players.

This, Jun argued, could be a mistake.

“Olaf Scholz does not enjoy much support, according to polls. (…) To Germans, Scholz does not radiate enough leadership and lacks clear communication,” he said.

Jun is equally unconvinced that the far-right threat to democracy will motivate enough voters: “The topic of democracy is noble, but rather abstract,” he said.

“There are about six weeks to go and there is no indication that social democracy will make a successful comeback,” the political scientist concluded.

*Max Griera contributed to reporting

[Edited by Aurélie Pugnet/Zoran Radosavljevic]

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