Hill GOP's interest in federal abortion limits withers after Trump says no

Four years ago, the vast majority of the Senate GOP voted for a federal abortion ban after 20 weeks of pregnancy, with Donald Trump in office. On Monday, the former president effectively finished off congressional Republicans’ movement for national abortion restrictions.

After Trump’s much-teased announcement that it is “up to the states to do the right thing” on abortion, which also urged Republicans to take his position in order to win this November, few GOP senators expressed interest in breaking explicitly with him. That includes the Republicans who still supported federal limits after Roe v. Wade got overturned.

Sens. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and John Thune (R-S.D.), both party leadership members, once backed Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) legislation that would ban abortion after 15 weeks. On Monday, though, Daines and Thune harmonized with Trump.

Daines, whose job as National Republican Senatorial Committee chair is to win back the majority, said Trump’s abortion “position is right” — pointing to the presumptive presidential nominee’s position on IVF protections as well as exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.

Thune, who’s vying for the top Republican job in the Senate next year, said Trump’s comments reflect the views of his colleagues. He added that there’s “an argument” for a national abortion law, but that there aren’t 60 votes in the Senate to break a filibuster on abortion legislation.

The view “by and large among Senate Republicans is that it should be left to the states and the voters. That could change over time. But I think [Trump is] probably reflecting the views of a decent majority of Republicans.”

It’s not hard to see why Republicans were keeping any disagreements with Trump to themselves. Trump fileted Graham on Monday afternoon after the South Carolinian issued a statement “respectfully” disagreeing with the former president’s newly iterated abortion stance.

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said Trump’s position reflects where “mainstream” Republicans are headed: “Public opinion moves over time. And for now, I think the [former] president arrived at what is a consensus position.”

Back in 2020, things were different: 51 Senate Republicans backed a 20-week ban. And just two years ago, 10 Senate Republicans backed Graham’s preelection move to give the GOP a consensus position after the Supreme Court — led by Trump-tapped justices — ended Roe.

At the time, many GOP senators questioned Graham’s move. On Monday it was Trump scolding the South Carolina senator as doing a “great disservice to the Republican Party, and to our country.”

In reality, Trump’s position amounts to the absence of a position. Without a national abortion standard, many states are taking far more aggressive action than 20-week or 15-week national bans, which for a time reflected carefully crafted consensus among GOP lawmakers and anti-abortion activists. Trump’s comments on Monday mean the issue won’t be defused in the November election, essentially ensuring it stays in the spotlight — especially for Democrats.

Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, said it will “make sure voters will hold GOP Senate candidates accountable for their well documented records” opposing abortion rights.

Even the few GOP lawmakers who are sticking with pursuing a national ban aren’t predicting success in Congress. To pass an abortion ban, Republicans would need big enough majorities in Congress to either clear a filibuster or change the Senate rules — which appears improbable at the moment.

And even as Trump tanked the political momentum for a national ban, he was also validating long-held concerns by anti-abortion activists about his abortion positions, dating back to his first presidential campaign. But with no path to passing a ban in Congress, and after Democrats used Roe’s demise to gain ground in the 2022 midterms, even backers of Graham’s approach said Trump is simply acknowledging reality.

“I would co-sponsor [the legislation] again, but there's not 50 votes up here to do anything. I really do think that the issue’s back to the states, and that's where the debate should be going on,” said Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.).

Anthony Adragna contributed to this report.