How the next few weeks could shape the West’s support for Ukraine

5 months ago 28

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As Ukraine races against time to fortify its frontline and secure more military aid, its Western allies face several key decisions in the next few weeks that will shape their future support for Kyiv.

After months-long delays in approving and delivering additional Western military aid, limiting Ukraine’s battlefield capacities, Ukraine finds itself on the defensive against advancing Russian troops at a number of points on the frontline.

I have spoken to Ukrainian and Western defence officials over the past two-plus years, and the sense that decisions are being taken long after Ukraine needed them has been causing much frustration.

“The attitude to time is completely different,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Guardian this week. “We feel this price more painfully than in the partner countries because no one in their families has died.”

“Sometimes, to understand the price that we are paying, you don’t need just a political will, but also a deeper understanding of the consequences. You have to understand that a day of contemplating, day of decision-making, day of dialogues (…) takes people’s lives,” he said.

Zelenskyy’s calls for more urgency are slowly moving the European needle, the latest with dropping the ban on using Western weapons to hit military targets inside Russia, which has so far been limiting its ability to defend itself and strike positions from which Russian troops were launching missile attacks against Ukrainian cities.

For faster EU military aid, the prospect, however, remains rather bleak.

Anger with Hungary among EU member states has been rising over the past year as Budapest keeps preventing payouts from the EU’s off-budget European Peace Facility (EPF) to reimburse them for weapons sent to Ukraine, as well as a new €5 billion-heavy Ukraine Assistance Fund (UAF).

At the same time, EU member states are working to agree on the accession negotiation frameworks for Ukraine (and Moldova) in the first week of June, though some objections from Hungary remain.

EU officials are increasingly sceptical that the Hungarian vetoes on the various files can be lifted before Budapest takes over the EU’s rotating presidency on 1 July.

Meanwhile, the EU’s one million ammunition plan remains at roughly halfway, with only a small part of the shells pledged under the Czech ammunition initiative, which sources supplies from outside the EU, expected to reach Ukraine in June.

Prague stepped up calls on its European allies to fulfil their commitments and help shop ammunition abroad for Kyiv.

“Everything takes more time than expected,” a senior EU official admitted this week. “But the real issue we have to face is a lack of unity.”

“If member states see the EPF is blocked, they will have to act bilaterally (…) Germans [organising] air defence, the Czech ammunition initiative, the Latvian drone coalition – maybe grouping people is the answer to lack of unity,” the official added.

France, meanwhile, wants to forge a coalition of Western countries willing to take the contentious step of training Ukrainian troops on the ground, according to people familiar with the discussions.

However, the option might run into resistance from Washington, Berlin, and others who would see a red line crossed and a growing danger of the war escalating onto European soil.

All those issues will come into the mix during a series of key summits in the next few weeks.

French President Emmanuel Macron could aim to move forward on the plan when Western leaders – including US President Joe Biden, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy and a host of EU leaders – meet for the celebrations of the World War II D-Day landings in Normandy.

When G7 leaders meet in Italy in mid-June, they are expected to discuss a US proposal to squeeze more money for Ukraine from Russian immobilised assets.

Then, at the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, expected to include representatives of more than 90 countries, Kyiv wants to increase the pressure on Russia and force Moscow to make concessions.

Participants will try to chart a course for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine based on Zelenskyy’s 10-point plan calling for the return of all occupied territory, reparation for war-related damages, and the creation of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes.

Ukraine has long held the position it will not negotiate with Russia directly until Moscow’s forces leave the entire Ukrainian territory, including the Crimean Peninsula.

However, it remains unclear whether the gathering will be able to draw a significant number of delegates from the Global South, who are seen as crucial for sending a message to Moscow.

On Sunday (2 June), Zelenskyy publicly rebuked China for helping Russia derail the peace summit preparations.

“Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats, does everything to disrupt the peace summit,” Zelenskyy told reporters at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the largest security conference in Asia.

He also accused China, which many Global South countries see as a key player in future peace talks, of refusing to meet with Ukraine.

And finally, the NATO summit in Washington in July, where Ukraine can expect more aid pledges, including a €100 billion fund proposal for several years.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has been pushing for the aid to be “Trump-proof,” meaning that it will be organised for the long term so that it can continue even if former president Donald Trump should return to the White House after the US elections in November.

With no prospect of NATO membership any time soon, Ukraine has been pushing to sign security agreements with Western countries one-by-one – this week alone with Spain, Belgium, and Portugal, as well as three Nordic countries – Sweden, Norway and Iceland.

DEFENCE BRIEFING

VETO ANGER | For the first time, EU member states this week vented their anger with Hungary’s “pattern of behaviour” which increasingly often blocks EU foreign policy decisions and prevents progress on crucial military aid for Ukraine.

NATO STRATEGY | Europe should have a containment strategy towards Russia, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský told Euractiv as NATO foreign ministers met in Prague to work on a new kind of support package for Ukraine.

Germany and the US publicly backed Ukraine to hit military targets in Russian territory with their weapons, breaking an important taboo and secret surrounding the rules Kyiv must follow in resisting Moscow’s attack.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called for members to spend together ‘equitably’, €40 billion a year for Ukraine, giving up on his original multi-year plan, nevertheless assuring this will provide a long-term perspective for Ukraine.

JOB RACE | Less than two months before NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, the top job race nomination continues amid political bargaining, with currently 29 against 3 in favour of Dutchman Mark Rutte.

PARTNERSHIP PIPELINE | The EU is working on six more defence partnerships with third countries, the bloc’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell announced this week, after similar deals have just been signed with Moldova and Norway.

EDA TASKS | Joint procurement has been added to the European Defence Agency’s (EDA) tasks, despite criticism and reluctance to use the body for that purpose.

WIDER EUROPE

ACCESSION TALKS | EU member states are hopeful to agree on the negotiation frameworks for Ukraine and Moldova in the first week of June, though some objections from Hungary remain.

GEORGIA MEASURES | The EU said it is ‘considering all options’ as Georgia’s parliament this week overruled a presidential veto and adopted its controversial ‘foreign agent’ law, which had sparked weeks of mass demonstrations and international condemnation. EU foreign ministers are likely to decide on potential measures in June.

EU IN THE WORLD

RESTRAINING ISRAEL| With horrifying images coming out of Gaza, Europeans have started looking for the right tools to exert pressure on Israel, but they might not be able to bridge their fundamental internal differences.

Amid growing calls for economic sanctions against Israel in view of the worsening humanitarian toll of its military operations in Gaza, EU trade ministers briefly discussed the issue this week but remained far from deciding on actual steps.

WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING

NATO Cannot Survive Without America [Foreign Affairs]
Do We Still Understand How Wars Are Won? [NYT]
The Normalizing of Assad Has Been a Disaster [Foreign Policy]
The Toll Of Beijing’s Security Law On Hong Kong’s Activists [AP]

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