Ireland to be ‘outlier’ in EU elections amid lack of far-right surge

As Irish voters head to the polls for local and European elections on 7 June, neither the ruling parties nor the opposition have a clear lead following the recent emergence of independent candidates, but the tables could still be turned as ‘hot ticket’ issues such as tackling immigration or housing become the campaign’s main focus.

With turnout in Ireland expected to be more than in 2019 due to the emergence of high-profile candidates and the highly competitive local and municipal elections being held on the same day, predicting a firm result has become more complex.

However, according to Former Irish environment minister and polling expert Dick Roche, the main political parties “might well avoid the ‘kicking’ that many commentators have been predicting.” 

The three largest parties in the Irish parliament, which include governing Fianna Fail (Renew) and Fine Gael (EPP), as well as opposition party Sinn Fein (GUE/NGL), seem certain to return with at least three seats each of the 14 total allotted to Ireland in the new EU Parliament. According to the latest polls, two of these three parties are well-placed to win a fourth seat. 

Of the parties in the three-party coalition government of Fianna Fail, Fine Gail and the Greens, the latest opinion polls show that Fine Gael has seen a significant uptick in support since Simon Harris became Ireland’s youngest-ever Taoiseach in April and is now neck-and-neck with Sinn Fein.

Fianna Fail, while still well below its historical position in elections, is doing better than many expected. 

But things do not look promising for the Green Party, the third member of the current coalition government. It could even lose the two seats it holds in the outgoing EU parliament. 

As well as facing a more significant challenge in the Dublin MEP constituency, Roche tells Euractiv that the party is also suffering heavy losses in the Ireland South constituency, where Irish farmers, though less vocal than their protesting European counterparts, “bemoan the green policies coming out of Brussels” – an association the Greens seem to find hard to shake. 

While dissatisfaction with the ruling parties culminated in the recent failed referendum, which proposed rewriting constitutional clauses on family roles and ‘women’s responsibilities’, polls show that the Irish remain unhappy with how the ruling parties are dealing with perceived high levels of migration, housing shortages and limited public services – the issues that consistently concern them most, according to an Irish Times/Ipsos B&A Snapshot poll. 

Though “Ireland is a pro-migrant nation […] poor handling of the challenges that Ireland is facing means that sympathy for migrants is eroding rapidly,” according to Roche, adding that reporting on the topic regularly features in the news.    

For now, however, there is “no coherent response to migration,” Roche added, noting that whoever convinces voters they can address the perceived high levels of migration could come out as the winner in this year’s double-election. 

A close race 

At the same time, Sinn Fein, which, despite staying in a steady lead since coming out on top in the 2020 elections, has started to fall in the polls since the end of last year. 

“The deterioration of Sinn Fein will impact votes significantly,” Roche said of the party, which may not come in first in the EU elections, let alone next year’s general election. 

Although polls conducted over the past four years consistently showed Sinn Fein doing well, predicting that it could come out on top in the EU elections, more recent polls have shown a decline in voter interest, with the party now running neck-and-neck with Harris’ Fine Gael. 

At the same time, however, the so-called ‘Independents and Others’ have been gaining ground in recent weeks. “It is clear that disaffected voters who previously turned to Sinn Fein are now looking elsewhere”, said Roche.    

A recent poll published on 10 May even puts them ahead of every other party, though they are a pretty mixed and fragmented group, the way the Irish voting system works, the group’s combined support will not turn into seats in the EU Parliament.  

The way in which the votes are distributed between these candidates will determine who—after the main parties have secured nine or 10 seats in the EU Parliament—will secure the rest—something that is hard to call at this point. 

A leftist wind for the EU house 

From an EU perspective, Ireland will be an outlier on the EU scene as it will not have any far-right MEPs sitting in the EU plenary. 

Whereas the ruling Fine Gael is part of the European People’s Party (EPP) and Fianna Fail is part of Renew Europe, other parties, including the main opposition Sinn Fein, are all on the left of the political spectrum. 

But while “the campaign has only just begun”, meaning that “a lot could change between now and election day”, according to Roche, it seems that “whatever the outcome on 7 June, the results of the general election that will likely follow before the end of the year are still very much in the melting pot.”

(Daniel Eck | Euractiv.com)

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