JASON GROVES: No one will say it out loud, but maybe this was a manifesto to stem the Conservative losses

Plenty of previous administrations have run out of ideas after more than a decade in power.

That cannot be said of Rishi Sunak. The 80-page Tory manifesto published yesterday is packed with eye-catching initiatives, whether it's the reintroduction of National Service, protecting the basic state pension from income tax or introducing an annual cap on migration.

The political test is whether any are compelling enough to shake up an election that seems locked on to a pre-determined outcome – and whether they tell a story about the future that can win back disaffected Conservative voters.

Some Tory MPs would have liked a package that was bolder.

The Prime Minister and his team have cobbled together £18 billion in savings from a combination of welfare reform and a crackdown on tax avoidance.

Efficiency savings, such as cutting the size of the Civil Service, are expected to generate around £10 billion more.

Tory high command could have gambled on splurging the cash on two or three bold measures – abolishing inheritance tax, for example, would have cost around £7 billion.

Instead, they have chosen to offer a big package of smaller measures with the aim of pleasing a broader range of target groups. 

So there are modest tax cuts for pensioners, families and first-time buyers, and small spending commitments on everything from expanding the role of local pharmacists to protecting subsidy measures for farmers.

By far the most expensive measure is cutting National Insurance by 2p for most workers and abolishing it altogether for the self-employed. 

Helping hard-working aspirational people is a solid Tory message.

But the fixation with National Insurance is risky – the PM and Chancellor have already slashed it twice in six months without any measurable effect on the polls.

No doubt each individual measure will play well with focus groups – indeed, this manifesto gives the impression of being driven more by focus groups than political vision.

No one will say it out loud but the manifesto is maybe designed to limit the damage rather than provide a platform to win.

There are clear signs the Conservatives are now focused on ensuring they remain a viable parliamentary force after the election.

It is striking that campaign visits by Mr Sunak and other ministers are targeted almost exclusively at Tory seats defending majorities of 10,000 plus.

To this end, the manifesto sets up the key dividing line with Labour on tax and the dangers of handing Sir Keir Starmer a landslide majority. 

The Conservatives, on the basis of this document, would cut taxes for workers. 

Labour will not be able to say that when it launches its own manifesto tomorrow – indeed, the tax burden is likely to rise higher still under Sir Keir.

Don't give Labour a blank cheque, the PM said yesterday. 

For all the manifesto promises, it may be the strongest message the Tories have in the weeks remaining.