Labour 'virtually certain' to win a bigger majority than Tony Blair's in 1997 as new mega-poll shows party winning 484 seats with Tories reduced to 64 MPs... but there are signs Rishi's warnings about 'unchecked' power for Starmer are having an impact

Labour are 'virtually certain' to win a bigger majority on Thursday than Tony Blair delivered in the party's landslide win in 1997, a new mega-poll showed tonight.

A final MRP study by Survation, published within the last 48 hours of campaigning, predicted Labour would win 484 seats at this week's general election.

The model, based on polling data from more than 30,000 voters, forecast the Tories would be reduced to just 64 seats in the House of Commons.

This means they would only just scrape being the official Opposition, with the Liberal Democrats predicted to win 61 seats.

Nigel Farage's Reform UK were forecast to win seven seats, according to the Survation research, while the SNP were reduced to 10 MPs.

The study, based on polling conducted between 15 June to 1 July, will heighten Conservative fears of a looming wipeout when polls open on Thursday morning.

But other polls showed signs that Rishi Sunak's warnings about handing Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer 'unchecked' power might be having an impact on voters.

As the election campaign nears its end, the PM has ramped up his message to Brits to act to stop Labour winning a 'supermajority'.

The Survation research found the scale of the Labour victory forecast by their model was 'unprecedented'. 

'Labour is virtually certain (probability greater than 99 per cent) to win more than they won in 1997 under Tony Blair, when Labour won 418 seats by polling 13 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives,' it stated.

'Labour is also likely (probability of around 78 per cent) to win more seats than Stanley Baldwin’s Conservatives did in 1931, when they won 470 of 615 seats.

'The Conservative Party is virtually certain to win a lower share of the vote than at any past general election, and to poll lower than they have done in any nationwide election save their disastrous performance in the 2019 European Parliament election when they polled 8 per cent.'

It also found the Tories and Lib Dems are 'in a close race to form the official Opposition'.

But there was a glimmer of hope this evening for Mr Sunak as other polling showed signs of a late rally in the Tories' performance.

The final Redfield & Wilton Strategies mega-poll before Thursday's election put the Conservatives on 22 per cent - up three points from their previous survey.

This compared to Reform's 16 per cent vote share, with Mr Farage's party - who have recently been engulfed in a racism row - falling two points from the last poll. 

The survey will ease Tory fears that a strong showing for Reform on Thursday will leave them in total wipeout territory.

But the pollster predicted the Conservatives are still on course for a 'devastating' result, with Labour holding a 19-point lead.

Sir Keir's party were found to be backed by 41 per cent of voters, down one point, in the poll of 20,000 Brits conducted between 28 June to 2 July.

Labour's vote share was their joint-lowest in Redfield & Wilton's polling since Boris Johnson was PM.

But the Tories have not improved relative to where they were before Mr Sunak called the election.

The Conservatives' 22 per cent vote share in the latest poll is one point less than the 23 per cent they scored in the first survey after the announcement of the 4 July election.

And, while there are signs Reform might have faltered in the final stages of the election campaign, the party are still well up from where they were prior to Mr Farage's dramatic return as leader.

This is despite Tory hopes of squeezing Reform's vote share at the beginning of the general election campaign. 

Commenting on the latest poll, Philip van Scheltinga, Redfield & Wilton's director of research, said: 'The election result will be devastating for the Conservatives.

'Given our polling only a week ago, it appears it could have been even worse, but that will be a very faint consolation.'

A separate Savanta survey, published last night, had also shown a slight improvement in the Tories' performance.

The Conservatives were up three points to 24 per cent - their highest vote share in a month.

The poll also showed Labour's lead of 15 points to be the lowest in a month, with Sir Keir's party on 39 per cent (up one point).

Reform fell one point from Savanta's previous survey to a 13 per cent vote share.

Mr Sunak today embarked on a frantic final 48 hours of campaigning before polling stations open on Thursday morning.

The PM kicked off a final push for votes with a pre-dawn visit to an Ocado packing plant in Bedfordshire and stops in Oxfordshire seats where the Conservatives won in 2019 by a sizeable margin. 

In Banbury, where the Tories' majority at the last election was 16,800, Mr Sunak was challenged over whether his defensive campaigning was a sign of conceding defeat.

He told reporters: 'We have been to every part of the country, every type of seat. I don't take any vote for granted.'

The PM also dismissed suggestions the outcome of the election was a 'foregone conclusion' and said he was 'feeling energised' with two days to go.

'I know there are lots of people who want to tell everyone it's a foregone conclusion but I don't believe that,' he said.

Mr Sunak repeatedly highlighted the fact that he had been up at 4am because his focus was on 'fighting until the last minute of this campaign'.

He added: 'I'm feeling energised. I'm on my third breakfast already today. Like, how often do you get to have three breakfasts before 10 o'clock? That's only good news.'

The PM has a frenetic schedule on the penultimate day of campaigning, culminating with a 10pm rally in London.

As he crunched the Tory campaign into overdrive, Mr Sunak seized on Sir Keir admitting he avoids working past 6pm on Fridays.

The Tories have branded the Labour leader a 'part-time PM' and accused him of wanting to work a 'four-day week' after he spoke about his determination to hold on to his family time while in office. 

Sir Keir also boasted that getting an historic 'supermajority' on Thursday would be 'better for the country', despite warnings against giving any party untrammeled power. 

Campaigning in the East Midlands today, Sir Keir said the attack on his working habits was 'bordering on hysterical'. 

'I do carve out Friday nights, as best I can, for Vic and the kids and her dad as protected time,' he said.

'Her dad's side of the family is Jewish, as people will appreciate, and we use that for family prayers – not every Friday, but not infrequently.

'That doesn't mean I've never had to work on a Friday, of course it doesn't, plenty of times I haven't been able to do it. But I've tried to protect that time. I'd like to try and protect it in the future but I know very well, it's going to be really difficult to do it.

'And that we're even having a conversation about it is laughably pathetic and desperate.'

The latest row erupted after Sir Keir, who has a 16-year-old son and a 13-year-old daughter with his wife Victoria, told Virgin Radio he was more relaxed after spending time with his children.

'We've had a strategy in place and we'll try to keep to it, which is to carve out really protected time for the kids, so on a Friday – I've been doing this for years – I will not do a work-related thing after six o'clock, pretty well come what may. 

'There are a few exceptions, but that's what we do.'

Sir Keir has spoken of the importance of spending time on Friday evenings with his wife's family, who are Jewish and observe the Shabbat.  

Mr Sunak told reporters last night: 'I haven't finished at six ever.'

Speaking at Hucknall Town FC's ground in Nottingham, Sir Keir said: 'Look, this is just increasingly desperate stuff.

'I actually can hardly believe that 48 hours before an election, the Conservative Party has got nothing possible positive to say as they go into it.

'I've been arguing throughout this campaign, you'll have heard me many times saying they haven't changed. They're just the same. Nothing's going to change. But they're proving it.

'Because they're not saying 'look, if you vote Tory, vote Conservative on Thursday, these things will happen'. They're just in this negative desperate loop.

'I just think it's increasing desperation bordering on hysterical now.'

Speaking to Times Radio from Nottingham, Sir Keir said: 'I think it's laughably ridiculous that this is even being talked about.

'All I said was that on a Friday night, I tend to try and protect that time for my family as protected time for my wife and my kids.

'Now, of course, I've had to work Fridays in the past, I'll work Fridays in the future.'

On the campaign trail, Mr Sunak was asked if he believed the Labour leader would have got up at 3am to match his day of campaigning.

He told reporters: 'Everyone is going to do this job differently, so that is just the way it is.

'I can just tell you from my experience … about doing this job that it is demanding, and rightly so, because there's a great responsibility that rests on your shoulders, there's always work you can do, there's always decisions that need to be made, and that's what comes with the privilege of doing this job.

'Public service is about service, service means sacrifice. You go into these jobs knowing that, that's why we recognise and respect people who do public service, they are putting themselves at the service of others and that comes always at a sacrifice to you.'

Visiting a Morrisons supermarket in Oxfordshire, Mr Sunak dismissed criticism of his campaign and said he was not heeding grim polls.

'That's his view. That's not going to stop me from working as hard as I can over these final few days to talk to as many people as possible about the choice,' he said.

'And I was up at four this morning talking to workers at a distribution facility. I'm here talking to you. I'll be out till the last moment of this campaign because I think it's a really important choice for the country.

He added: 'I will continue as I've said fighting for every vote till the last moment of the campaign.'

Mr Sunak also denied that his switch from talking about his plans to warnings about a Labour landslide was the language of defeat.

'No, I'm very much still talking to people about our plan,' he said.

A Conservative Party social media post said: 'Keir Starmer has said he'd clock off work at 6pm if he became prime minister.

'You deserve better than a part-time prime minister. The only way to prevent this is to vote Conservative on Thursday.'

Tory mayor of the Tees Valley Ben Houchen warned Sir Keir's deputy, Angela Rayner, would be left in charge.

'Angela Rayner in charge of the country because Slippery Starmer needs his beauty sleep. God forbid the Government need to do anything after 6pm.'

Touring broadcast studios this morning, health minister Maria Caulfield said: 'He has indicated that he wants to kind of have a more flexible working life approach. That's just not possible.

'I'm just a junior minister and I work seven days a week, often close to 20-hour days at times. So, it is slightly concerning that that's the approach he's taken.'

But shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said the jibes were a 'total disgrace'.

Asked on Times Radio if he would work beyond 6pm on a Friday, Mr Streeting said: 'I'm sure I will be and I'm sure Keir will be doing so too.

'The attacks on him are a total disgrace and it shows how far these people have fallen, how heavily they're scraping the barrel and why they need to be removed from office on Thursday.'

He added: 'Let me say something about the Conservative Party. The party that turned Number 10 into a giant lockdown party now wants to lecture others on their work ethic.

'It's a disgrace and the stench of their lies and hypocrisy is even more overwhelming than the vomit they left for Downing Street cleaners, and like those cleaners we'll clean up the Tories' mess too if we're given the chance on Thursday, and as far as I'm concerned, given their behaviour this morning, that change can't come soon enough.'

In a wide-reaching interview with The Times, Sir Keir insisted he would be a 'serious Prime Minister' if he enters No 10 this Friday as the polls are the predicting. 

And he appealed for a 'strong mandate' so he could make difficult decisions to give a boost to the economy.

'It's the mindset change we've talked about,' he said. 'Do we need a strong mandate for that? Yes, we do. 

'Because these changes are difficult and the sense of the whole country wanting those changes is important in terms of the platform on which we stand to take the country forward.'