Local elections in Poland to test Tusk coalition

After a resounding success in last year’s general election, Sunday’s local polls will be the first test of public approval for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s new government after four months in power.

In the October elections, the conservative PiS won for the third time but failed to secure a parliamentary majority, losing power to the coalition of centrist and left-wing parties led by Tusk.

As the election marathon continues, the ruling coalition faces two major tests of its popularity: local elections on Sunday and European elections in June.

With PiS still controlling many local governments, the coalition’s goal would be to make them lose as much as possible, Piotr Maciej Kaczyński, EU expert at the Bronisław Geremek Foundation, told Euractiv.

“If the coalition succeeds, PiS will remain on the defensive. Otherwise, a status quo will be maintained,” he said.

Traditionally, progressive and pro-EU parties tend to be supported in larger cities, with Warsaw and Gdansk being the strongholds of Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO, EPP). In contrast, rural areas generally tend to support PiS.

The incumbent mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski (KO), is almost sure to win a second term in Warsaw, with nearly 50% of the vote, according to the latest poll by the Pollster Institute for public broadcaster TVP. Magdalena Biejat of the Left Party (S&D) is in second place, with an estimated 16% support, and Tobiasz Bocheński of the PiS is third (11%).

“Despite the polls, it is rather Bocheński that has a chance for the second place,” Kastor Kużelewski, a policy analyst at the Polityka Insight news outlet, has said.

Even if Trzaskowski wins, he may not even serve the first half of his second term, as his party is said to be considering him as its candidate to succeed Andrzej Duda as Polish president.

Test for both Tusk and PiS

The overall polls are surprisingly unclear, with the Civic Coalition and the PiS almost tied.

KO ranks first with the result of 29%, and PiS second with 28%, a poll by Opinia24 pollster for private broadcaster TVN reads.

“Should the Civic Coalition win over PiS, this would carry a strong message regarding its potential,” said Kaczyński.

Still, nothing is certain. “I can imagine a situation in which the Civic Coalition performs worse than PiS,” Kużelewski told Thursday’s pre-election debate by Polityka Insight.

PiS’s success could result from a mechanism whereby the ruling coalition’s voters no longer perceive PiS as a risk, which could lead to a lower turnout. As a result, PiS’s good performance would be associated with a low voter turnout, Kużelewski explains.

Sunday’s elections will be crucial for PiS, as they will show how the public feels about the party months after it lost power in Poland and what direction PiS should take to rebuild its support, Spasimir Domaradzki, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw, told Euractiv.

“Each weak result is an indicator of the society’s assessment of the government’s functioning,” he said when asked about the political consequences of the ruling coalition’s potential failure.

He added that the coalition must not ignore the result, whatever it is.

However, Domaradzki stressed that the assessment of Tusk’s camp’s overall result will be “fuzzy,” as each party within the ruling coalition is running separately in these elections.

EU voting on the horizon

The local elections will also be the last test before the European elections.

Although completely different rules govern the two types of vote, Domaradzki said Sunday’s result will forecast the June elections and show the general political tendencies.

“It’s like a hurdle race. Whoever falls at one point will find it difficult to make up the loss,” Kaczyński pointed out.

Nevertheless, some EU-related issues may have influenced the local campaign. One example is the local authorities’ approach to the European Green Deal, given farmers’ anger at the previous and current governments’ insufficient pursuit of Warsaw’s interests in Brussels.

“The attitude towards the greater EU integration is another example,” Domaradzki added.

(Aleksandra Krzysztoszek | Euractiv.pl)

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