Low risk of power cuts this winter, says French grid operator

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France’s electricity outlook for the winter is favourable compared to last year, even though “we are not out of the crisis yet,” French power grid operator RTE said on Wednesday (8 November).

Read the original French article here.

Last year’s winter outlook from RTE was marked by an unprecedented gas crisis caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine and failures in the French fleet of nuclear reactors. This raised the likelihood of intentional power cuts to avoid a wider blackout.

But a combination of mild weather and efforts to reduce electricity consumption by industry, businesses and households meant that France did not have to resort to planned power cuts – or ‘load shedding’ – on its grid.

As a result, “The risk of an imbalance between electricity supply and demand is low” for the coming winter, RTE said in its winter outlook, published on Wednesday.

This is due to the “improved availability of generation facilities, high hydro and gas stocks and fluid exchanges at European level”, added the French grid operator.

Nuclear back on track

After last year’s slump, France’s nuclear fleet is back on track: 40 gigawatts (GW) are already available, 10 GW more than at the same time last year, while 50 GW are expected to be online in January 2024 – 6 GW more than in January 2023.

But “even this is not a nominal situation”, as availability remains low compared to the 60 GW that were often available before the crisis, warned Thomas Veyrenc, head of RTE’s finance department.

With an additional 1.5 GW of wind power expected to be added to the grid by the end of the winter, the contribution of renewables to France’s security of electricity supply is becoming bigger, RTE said.

“In concrete terms, we will consume more wind power than gas in 2023, which was not the case in 2022,” Veyrenc noted.

What’s more, EU gas storage is almost 100% full, while water stocks in hydropower dams are higher than historical averages, he added.

Regarding trade, France, which became a net importer of electricity last year, has reverted to being an exporter.

However, RTE notes that work on the Savoie-Piémont interconnector between Italy and France is ongoing. Maintenance work on the Baixas – Santa Llogaia interconnector with Spain is beginning.

Reducing consumption

Although the situation is improving, “the risk of load shedding cannot be completely ruled out,” warned Jean-Paul Roubin, deputy director general at RTE.

According to RTE, uncertainties relate to weather conditions (cold spells, light winds, etc.), the ability of consumers to keep their electricity usage low and the effective availability of nuclear power plants, some of which are still undergoing maintenance operations.

For the time being, the relatively high electricity prices incentivise households to keep their consumption low. However, it is difficult to separate “citizen actions” from those motivated by prices, noted Xavier Piechaczyk, CEO of RTE.

And although prices on the short-term European electricity market have receded, “forward prices are still high,” Veyrenc cautioned, adding: “We are not out of the crisis yet”.

To keep consumers on their toes, RTE announced that it had improved its Ecowatt electricity weather forecasting system, which informs households of the current situation on the electricity network and when it is best to use electricity.

With this system, RTE aims to promote flexibility in the electricity market by activating demand management resources, for example, by temporarily limiting the maximum power available to certain individual consumers, as is already the case for industrial consumers.

Given the fears expressed by some political decision-makers, these will be used as a “last resort”, Roubin assured, pointing out that there are many ways of reducing consumption upstream: off-peak/peak price contracts, for example, or the possibility of accessing foreign production margins.

In the presentation of the outlook, Veyrenc also praised the work of EU legislators to reform the Union’s electricity market, which supports the development of flexible supply and demand mechanisms.

In particular, he acknowledged the reform for allowing the maintenance of fossil fuel power plants as a backup.

For instance, France’s two coal-fired power stations still in operation, while having contributed very little to the electricity mix in 2022, remain essential during peaks in demand, Veyrenc explained.