National issues take centre stage in France’s EU elections, as far right surges in polls

EU elections in France have been focused on national issues, with very little room for European conversations, as the far-right holds on to a significant lead in voting intentions, and looks to turn the election into an ‘anti-Macron referendum’.

No other member state has seen the far-right maintain such a lead in polls relative to other parties, as in France.

Europe Elects predicts the Rassemblement National (RN – Identity & Democracy), headed by Jordan Bardella, could snatch up to 31% of votes – relative to 2019’s 23.34% final count – securing 31 seats in the European Parliament.

Should polls give an accurate picture of the future parliamentary make-up, then the RN would also have the largest parliamentary delegation, ahead of the German EPP delegation, expected to get 29 seats.

“France and the EU could soon disappear,” Bardella warned on French broadcaster France inter on Wednesday (5 June).

He spoke of both “economic disappearance” and risks that France and the continent would lose their cultural attributes because of “intense pro-immigration policies”.

He has continuously claimed that this election is a referendum for or against President Emmanuel Macron’s seven years in office, and has vowed to call for the dissolution of the National Assembly should the RN win.

Voting intentions over time show the RN has held a steady 30% lead on average, becoming the number-one party across all populations’ subgroups, as purchasing power and immigration top the list of most critical issues and the far-right claims it can give France back the “sovereignty” it lost to the EU.

While the young have, for ten years or so, voted RN en masse, the elderly and the highly educated are also leaning more and more towards the far-right, a study published on Monday (3 June) found.

Liberals’ struggles

Projections are not quite as rosy for Macron’s list Besoin d’Europe, headed by Valérie Hayer (Renew Europe).

A relatively unknown figure until just a few months ago, she quickly moved up the ranks to become Renew Europe’s President in January, before taking on the lead candidate role in March.

Though a skilled MEP, specialised in budgetary affairs, she’s failed to give Besoin d’Europe the momentum it needed to play catch up with the RN.

Instead, voting intentions have been dwindling, from 19% in December to 16% now – dropping to 15% even in some polls.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, and Macron have had to step in personally to help give the campaign a boost – raising concerns they were overstepping their institutional roles.

Hayer arguably kept European issues out of the debate, often getting caught by domestic priorities, including unrest in New Caledonia’s over a much-criticised Constitutional reform.

Causes for the drop are several, but studies have shown former pro-EU Macron voters are flocking to other candidates, disappointed with the right-wing turn the government seems to have taken in the past year.

Last year’s pensions reform has been particularly scarring, as was last December’s immigration bill, which saw Macron’s party vote alongside conservatives and the far-right.

Hayer’s advisors are hopeful it will play out in the last few days of the campaign, just like it did in 2019 – where Macron’s list eventually secured just over 22% of the vote share.

As for the conservative right (EPP), headed by François-Xavier Bellamy, it has run a somewhat underwhelming campaign, struggling to differentiate itself from the far-right on immigration issues.

Bellamy is banking on his party’s severe criticism of European Commission President incumbent Ursula von der Leyen, and has not ruled out ad hoc political alliances with the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group.

Socialists’ unexpected support

In an unexpected turn of events, the socialist candidate Raphaël Glucksmann (Socialists & Democrats) has seen his support increase significantly in the past couple of months, to top 14% of voting intentions – relative to his 2019’s 6% score.

He’s appearing as a credible social-democrat figure with a clear pro-EU agenda.

Glucksmann wants to “take a jump into EU federalism,” and is insisting he is the only one who has been able to talk about Europe throughout the campaign.

He’s attracting disappointed voters from both the Macron camp and the far-left – and seems to be a credible alternative to the Greens’ significant loss of influence as climate change is no longer a priority, and the Green Deal has endured a severe backlash from liberals and the right.

Meanwhile, the far-right La France insoumise (LFI – The Left), headed by Manon Aubry, has angled its campaign on the defence of Palestine – with other EU matters put back to the margins.

“It’d be good if we could talk about EU affairs again,” a far-left MEP told Euractiv a few weeks ago.

Rima Hassan, a vocal pro-Palestine activist and international law expert, joined the list at a strategic 7th place, hoping this would sway the undecided to cast an LFI vote.

The campaign has laid bare fundamental differences between left-wing movements, with dreams of a coalition of the likes of the 2022 Nupes alliance more blurry than ever.

[Edited by Alice Taylor]

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