NATO allies brush off concerns over Biden’s shaky second-term bid

While NATO leaders hailed Thursday’s (11 July) summit in Washington as successful, they aimed to brush off concerns over the alliance’s future following the outcome of the November US presidential elections.

NATO leaders touched down in Washington this week for a summit meant to demonstrate the unity of the Western military alliance 75 years after its founding.

But celebrations were overshadowed by concern among America’s allies about what it would mean for NATO and the US commitment to Europe’s security should Biden drop out of the presidential race or fail to win it.  

NATO leaders collectively held their breath during talks and sideline events where Biden spoke publicly, said people who were part of the meetings.  

‘Nothing to see here’ 

As the summit started, several long-time Biden administration advisors reportedly discussed convincing him to end his re-election campaign, the New York Times reported.

Asked whether European counterparts had inquired about Biden’s standing or the potential return to a Trump administration, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan played down concerns.

“It’s been on what we’re trying to deliver for the defence of the Alliance and deliver for Ukraine and deliver in our partnerships with the Indo-Pacific – it hasn’t been about politics,” Sullivan said.

However, Biden’s slip of the tongue, mistakenly referring to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as ‘President Putin’ at a joint press encounter before correcting himself, caused ripples of anxiety among attendees.

“President Putin? I’m going to beat President Putin. I am so focused on beating Putin,” Zelenskyy joked, adding: “I am better than that.”

The unease continued in a post-summit press conference aimed at proving he is still fit for office, which Biden used to cater to the domestic audience, talking about his national security achievements and drawing a contrast to Trump.

Keeping a low profile 

Publicly, NATO leaders toned down their concerns, refraining from any remarks about Biden’s health or Trump’s possible return.

“France, Europe and Ukraine are very lucky to have a president as engaged as he is”, French President Emmanuel Macron said when asked about what he thinks about Biden’s run for a second term. 

“Slips of tongue happen (…) But this does not change a single thing of what the US president stated very clearly in his speech [on Ukraine]” Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz said when asked about the Zelenskyy incident.

NATO’s chief Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg had earlier stressed that “one of the reasons why NATO is a successful alliance is that we have always stayed out of domestic political issues.”  

“And if I start to do to say anything that makes it possible to connect me to ongoing political debates in any allied country, then it will actually just weaken the alliance”, Stoltenberg said. 

“No one wants to be seen as interfering in November’s US election or upsetting a critical ally, no matter who sits in the White House in the end,” one senior EU official said before adding that bipartisan reach-out would be necessary. 

Privately, many NATO members acknowledged Washington was perhaps a ‘last chance’ before November to present the alliance as a success story and safeguard Western aid to Ukraine. 

Wooing Trump 

People familiar with the talks said officials from several European NATO countries took the trip to Washington as a chance to reach out to close aides of former US president Donald Trump. 

The most high-profile encounter with Trump that could perhaps reshape NATO’s future direction was Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who flew to Florida to meet with him.

The vocal supporter of Trump said it was the continuation of his self-declared ‘peace mission’ for Ukraine that had led him to Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing. Budapest’s initiative has been met with stark condemnation from nearly all European counterparts.

Orbán, like Trump, has expressed scepticism about the role NATO plays in support of Ukraine and refused to send military aid to Kyiv. Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly said he will end the war in Ukraine, though he has not elaborated on how. 

Some European diplomats had expressed concern that, with a possible Trump victory in November’s elections, Orbán was trying to put forward an ‘alternate path’ and position himself as a possible intermediary between Putin and Trump. 

Ring-fencing Ukraine aid 

NATO members over the past months have made efforts to “Trump-proof” both NATO and Ukraine aid, especially after Trump said Russia could do “whatever the hell they want” with NATO members that do not spend the minimum 2% GDP on defence.

This left Europeans second-guessing the US’ future commitment to transatlantic security. 

As a result, the message in Washington focused on fairer burden-sharing and calling out China for dealing dual-use goods with the Russians — two of Trump’s previously most important requests to Europeans.

Pre-summit diplomatic work had also focused on laying the ground to manage Ukraine’s expectations and avoiding discontent from the Ukrainians over limited progress on membership, as seen in Vilnius the previous year, NATO diplomats stressed.

As expected, NATO is taking over the coordination of the training and military deliveries; the members promised at least €40 billion worth of aid next year and help towards membership.

Washington also announced a significant defence package including air defence systems, promised that F-16 fighter jets would fly over Ukraine this summer, and said it would position hypersonic missiles in Germany.

France, meanwhile, took the lead on long-range weapons production this week to ease the burden off the US in the long term.

NATO’s announcements nearly managed to mask the lack of progress in Zelenskyy’s plea to his supporters to lift restrictions on using Western weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory.

[Edited by  Alice Taylor] 

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