NATO considers ‘bridge to membership’ for Ukraine, but details remain unclear

NATO members are looking to craft more than a political support package for Ukraine to deliver at the Washington summit in July, but a formal invitation for membership remains unlikely as they are divided over the timeline for Kyiv’s potential entry.

“We must ensure that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s aggression does not pay off, today or in the future,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier this week.

“That is why at the [July] summit we will continue to bring Ukraine ever closer to NATO membership, (…) so that when the time is right, Ukraine can join without delay,” he added.

In Washington, Stoltenberg met with US President Joe Biden and his State Secretary Anthony Blinken, ahead of the 9-11 July summit, where NATO members are expected to announce what they aim to be an extensive support package for Ukraine.

The package is likely to include a significant financial pot, in the shape of a political pledge to sustain the current annual €40 billion worth of military support, and bolstering the coordination mechanism of all Western aid deliveries and training, both linked to some sort of renewed promise of membership, albeit in the long-term.

The renewed promise of membership remains a sensitive issue, especially as Ukraine is still waiting for feedback on the application it lodged almost two years ago.

Last year, when NATO leaders gathered in Vilnius, they gave Kyiv only a lukewarm signal, conditioning membership on the end of fighting and progress on internal reforms, of which NATO is keeping track.

This year, the joint summit communiqué is again most likely to shy away from any form of “invitation”, which would be the first official step for any country’s joining the military alliance, according to NATO diplomats.

“Some NATO allies want a very forward-leaning language, that will entail an invitation for membership, while some others are less enthusiastic about the idea of an invitation”, one NATO diplomat said, echoing the same dilemma taking place before last year’s summit.

The US, together with Germany, remains among the most reluctant NATO members about extending an invitation to Ukraine to join the military alliance soon.

“The language will not be repeating that of last year in Vilnius but go a bit further,” a second NATO diplomat said.

“One is the notion of a bridge to membership, that that whole package of money and mission and everything we commit to is a bridge to membership,” they said.

“And the second element will be the notion of the trajectory towards membership of Ukraine being irreversible,” the diplomat added.

Speaking in Washington this week, Blinken said: “We are demonstrating our enduring support for Ukraine and providing a strong bridge to Ukraine’s membership to the alliance”.

He added no extra hope for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is still advocating a quick path to full membership, and instead focused on steps that should make Kyiv ready to join the alliance as soon as possible, once the fighting ends.

Several NATO diplomats were optimistic that a consensus was forming around the language, and so was Stoltenberg.

“I am certain that we also have language expression that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance”, the NATO chief said.

However, the language on ‘bridge’ and ‘irreversibility’, in practice, would not go beyond the already promised “path to membership”.

Ukraine is nevertheless backed in its efforts to join by several NATO countries, including the Baltic states.

“We can win, we can deter, and we can invite new members,” Lithiania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said last month during an informal NATO ministerial in Prague. “We have to start delivering on our promises”.

[Edited by Alexandra Brzozowski/Zoran Radosavljevic]

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