NATO members increasingly nervous over risk of French far-right entering government

NATO members are increasingly concerned about the risks to the cohesion of the Western military alliance posed by the possible entry of the French far-right into government and whether Paris’ influence and commitment to Ukraine could wane in the near future.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, NATO diplomats told Euractiv they were seriously concerned about the risks of the far-right entering government in France.

This comes as the country’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party is poised to win a large number of seats in the National Assembly after the second round of early parliamentary elections on Sunday (7 July).

It also comes as NATO’s eastern members are increasingly critical of the Alliance’s presence on Europe’s eastern flank, with many seeing recent political developments as calling into question the unity and continuity of Ukraine aid.

The RN, which could potentially have a say at the next government’s table or act as a strong blocking minority in the National Assembly after Sunday’s elections, has leading military allies questioning the future of France’s influence in the alliance, several NATO diplomats told Euractiv, citing the RN’s questioning of the purpose of the military alliance and aid to Ukraine.

Unlike smaller countries, France is one of four – along with the US, Germany and the UK – that significantly influence NATO’s long-term strategy, a NATO diplomat told Euractiv, referring to the informal grouping known as the ‘Quad’.

France’s influence over policy is also much greater than that of smaller countries such as Hungary or Slovakia, which have led strategies against supporting Ukraine, they added, suggesting that it would set a bad example and look to Russia.

Macron, for instance, re-thought France’s approach to his country’s relationship with Russia and sent additional troops to NATO’s eastern flank in Romania to bolster the military alliance’s defence and deterrence.

With Macron’s camp in tatters and half of France’s centrist MPs expected not to return to the National Assembly next Sunday, a change in priorities in a likely coalition government with the RN raises questions.

Military affairs have also historically been within the French president’s purview, though this could be challenged in the context of a coalition government.

There is, however, a risk that the RN could work towards a “soft and subtle” exit, Michel Duclos, a military affairs expert and special advisor at the liberal think tank Institut Montaigne, told Euractiv.

“Troops France sends to NATO could be of lower ranks. France could also send fewer troops altogether,” he said.

The above-quoted NATO diplomat also mentioned that the group of diplomats do not rule out a soft exit, characterised by France leaving the alliance’s military command – again.

This is all the more pressing as the re-election of US Republican candidate Donald Trump looms in the background, one NATO diplomat said. Trump had said in February that he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO members that failed to meet their financial commitments.

When asked if they had any concerns about NATO’s commitments to Ukraine, including a €40 billion annual pledge, a US State Department official played down recent political developments: “We don’t have any real concerns. Allies have always faced elections.

RN’s changed stance

However, the RN’s stance on NATO has softened in the past two years.

The party’s 2022 manifesto on defence policy – which is no longer available on its official website but can still be found here – is clear: “Withdrawal from NATO’s Integrated Military Command, discussion over a future strategic agreement with the US,” it reads.

It adds that there should be “a dialogue with Russia on key shared files [and] a freeze on all structural cooperations with Germany”.

Yet the party’s stance has softened considerably as the war in Ukraine has progressed.

“There will be no exit from NATO integrated military command while the war is on,” RN leader Jordan Bardella said in February.

He has since confirmed this position several times.

As things stand, the far right is unlikely to have France leave the NATO alliance immediately upon taking office, Duclos told Euractiv.

“NATO is not a fundamental aspect of RN’s politics – so [the French] can soften other member states’ concerns that not much should change,” he said.

Contacted by Euractiv, the Elysée declined to comment.

[Edited by Alexandra Brzozowski/Daniel Eck]

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