NATO members promise €40 billion to Ukraine for next year

NATO members agreed on Wednesday (3 July) to continue supplying Ukraine with €40 billion worth of military aid for next year, in a bid to give the country long-term reassurances, Euractiv has learnt.

The decision comes one week before NATO leaders are to meet in Washington for their annual summit. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to attend and plead for more help as his country tries to overcome its ammunition and air defence shortages and withstand Russia’s invasion.

Over the past two years, NATO members have been spending roughly €40 billion a year to support Ukraine militarily, according to the latest data by the military alliance.

After NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg initially proposed a multi-annual €100 billion proposal, the plan was debated, revised, and changed due to reluctance to give multi-year pledges and questions around burden-sharing among NATO allies.

On Wednesday, NATO countries reached an agreement to share the sum of €40 billion per year, based on the gross national income (GNI) of each country, a person familiar with the discussions told Euractiv.

Contrary to the original Stoltenberg proposal, the money will not be pledged across several years, but for only one. After that, NATO will annually review this on the basis that this is a non-binding commitment.

The pledge will most likely not contain new cash, three NATO diplomats told Euractiv.

It is not meeting, therefore, Stoltenberg’s initial goal of safeguarding the NATO members’ support for Ukraine from any changes within national governments in the long-term.

Those worries have especially emerged after the recent elections in Slovakia, following Hungary’s veto stance and the upcoming US presidential elections in November.

Europeans are especially concerned that the return of former president Donald Trump to the White House, could see a potential suspension of aid, in line with the Republicans months-long blockage of support.

With that, Wednesday’s pledge is mostly “political”, several NATO diplomats told Euractiv.

Before the agreement, a US State Department official compared it to the Wales summit pledge, to which NATO members collectively agreed to strive towards spending 2% GDP on defence.

An alliance diplomat said, also drawing comparison to the Wales pledge, that the political pressure on all could force the most reluctant governments to continue the flow of aid, and keep up with their share of the burden.

Several NATO diplomats, however, criticised the lack of long-term perspective and predictability of the funding.

“For many countries around the table, it depends on your system of governance to make a multi-year commitment going forward,” said the US State Department official.

The goal is to show Putin that the strategy to wait out Ukraine’s backers “will not succeed,” they added.

The fund is seen as part of NATO’s “Trump-proofing” attempts for military aid to Ukraine, and what members are expected to see as a “bridge” for Ukraine’s membership path to NATO.

It comes alongside other elements in the package including moving the coordination mechanism of all Western aid deliveries and training from an ad hoc structure to NATO, and the appointment of an envoy to Kyiv.

[Edited by Alexandra Brzozowski/ Rajnish Singh]

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