North Macedonia elections set to ramp up tensions with EU neighbours

North Macedonia appears set to be on a collision course with its EU neighbours Greece and Bulgaria with double-header elections Wednesday (8 May) poised to return the country’s nationalist opposition to power.

The votes could have a huge effect on the struggling Balkan nation’s hopes of becoming a member of the European Union.

After scoring a double-digit win in the first round of presidential elections last month, the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE party was heading into the run-off vote and simultaneous parliament elections with surging momentum.

Party chief Hristijan Mickoski has refused to acknowledge the country’s new name and a landmark deal signed with Greece in 2018 — which added “North” to its title to settle a long-running dispute.

He has also vowed to stand firm in a tussle with Bulgaria that has seen Sofia block North Macedonia’s EU accession talks for the past two years.

In 2022, Bulgaria agreed to a proposal by the then French Presidency of the Council of the EU to lift its veto on Skopje’s starting accession negotiations when North Macedonia adds the Bulgarian minority into the country’s constitution.

The centre-left Social Democrats (SDSM) are prepared to make the amendments but lack the numbers to win a parliamentary vote.

The VMRO-DPMNE party says constitutional changes can only come after North Macedonia joins the EU, a stance the government says is unrealistic.

The VMRO-DPMNE leadership has been bullish in recent rallies, where spirited crowds have lapped up their nationalist message.

“The victory is within reach and it is a consequence of all the suffering and humiliation this government brought,” Mickoski told supporters in the capital Skopje.

If his VMRO-DPMNE party succeeds in securing a majority in the parliament, Mickoski is all but certain to be the next prime minister.

Since taking over the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE in 2017, Mickoski has rebuilt the battered party after its former leader and ex-PM Nikola Gruevski fled corruption charges and was given asylum in Viktor Orban’s Hungary.

Mickoski has also promised to prioritise the economy and create tens of thousands of jobs, a message that has resonated with many in the country battered by abysmal economic growth and rampant inflation.

Over the past two decades, North Macedonia has lost approximately 10 percent of its population due to mass migration, with few opportunities for the young.

Ethnic tensions

“VMRO-DPMNE has a great advantage and has the possibility of getting an even wider mobilisation of voters,” said political analyst Xhelal Neziri.

In the run-up to Wednesday’s vote, Mickoski has used increasingly inflammatory language toward the country’s largest Albanian party — the DUI — stirring fears that the rhetoric could upend fragile inter-ethnic relations.

Albanians make up more than a quarter of the country’s population of 1.8 million, with the DUI’s leader Ali Ahmeti leading a shortlived armed revolt for greater rights for Albanians in 2001.

Since declaring independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, successive governments have abided by an unwritten rule that an ethnic Albanian party must be included in the governing coalition.

The DUI, along with a coalition of minority parties, appear set to capture the largest number of Albanian votes despite Mickoski lambasting its leaders as “thieves”.

“Whenever I tell the truth, they distort it as an attack against Albanians,” said Mickoski.

Better chances

The ruling SDSM have warned that the votes will decide whether Macedonia has a future in the EU, but have struggled to regain the initiative since their first-round defeat in the presidential poll.

“These elections will practically set the future of Macedonia — if we will move towards a progressive society, to the EU, or if we are headed to some past time when we had isolation and ethnic conflicts,” warned former prime minister and SDSM chief Dimitar Kovacevski.

The SDSM are pinning their political future on promises that the party’s leadership is vital to unlocking talks with the EU and appeasing Bulgaria.

Sofia has refused to back the opening of accession talks between Skopje and the EU until North Macedonia recognises its tiny Bulgarian minority in the constitution.

The SDSM have sought to make the amendments but lacked the numbers to win a parliamentary vote.

The political bickering and stirring of ethnic tensions, however, appears to ignore many voters who are hoping for a more prosperous future.

“I hope that the new government will seriously work on improving living standards,” finance manager Ivana Trajcev, 42, told AFP, saying she wanted the country’s next leaders to “create conditions so young people get equal and better chances for progress.”

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