Pedro Sánchez: Three scenarios ahead of Monday’s decision

7 months ago 37

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s recent announcement that he is considering stepping down has resulted in a flurry of speculations, with analysts and media suggesting there could either be an imminent resignation, a call for snap elections, or a vote of no confidence.

On Wednesday, Sánchez announced on X that he would take a few days to think about his future after his wife, Begoña Gómez, was accused of alleged influence-peddling and corruption by the Partido Popular (PP), the right-wing party and main opposition force, and by VOX, the third largest force in parliament, in what he described as a “dirty campaign.”

Since Sánchez’s announcement, leading political analysts have raised several possible scenarios for the still-prime minister.

Sánchez could either resign or call for a motion of no confidence to try to reaffirm his leadership in the face of the “mudslinging” the right-wing camp is subjecting his family. There could also be a call for snap elections.

A ‘resistor’ never resigns

While Sánchez said in a letter published on Wednesday that he has “no attachment to the (prime minister’s) office,” the PP and VOX doubt his sincerity and say it is a strategic move to gain support and sympathy and reaffirm his hold on power.

However, it appears doubtful that Sánchez is indifferent to his prime minister role and plans to jump ship. One of his qualities that political analysts highlight is the resilience he has shown in recent years when confronted by colleagues who are members of the ‘old PSOE’ and supporters of the ‘old guard’ of the Socialist Party under former prime minister and ex-PSOE leader Felipe González.

Tangible proof that Sánchez sees himself as a survivor of all political shipwrecks is his autobiographical book “Manual de Resistencia” (Manual of Resistance), published in 2019, in which, in a conversation with a journalist, he outlines his vision of politics from the time he took over the leadership of the party in 2014 until he came to power in 2018.

In this sense, the PP’s Vice-Secretary of Organisation Carmen Fúnez assured in an interview on Tele-5 on Thursday that Sánchez’s letter is only “another chapter of his Resistance Manual.” The right-wing party, therefore, believes the prime minister will not resign from his post next Monday.

Meanwhile, PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo said on Thursday that it was an “unacceptable frivolity” that Sánchez had taken five days to reflect on a possible resignation, calling it “an insult to voters,” Euractiv´s partner EFE reported.

A no-confidence motion ‘easy’ to win

While such scenarios remain unlikely, Sánchez’s resignation and the calling of early general elections, as he did last year after the PSOE’s poor showing in the municipal elections, are not entirely out of the question.

However, according to the Spanish Constitution, Sánchez can only make such a call once a year has passed since the last snap election was announced, i.e. by 30 May.

If an early election were to be confirmed, with the prior dissolution of parliament, the new elections would be held at the end of July.

With this, Spain would enter a real electoral rollercoaster, with Catalan elections on 12 May, European elections on 9 June, and the possibility of snap general elections at the end of July.

According to experts, another possible scenario is that Sánchez decides to submit himself to a no-confidence motion to strengthen his position as head of the executive in an exceptional situation, as envisaged in Article 172 of the Constitution.

To win the confidence of the 350-member parliament, Sánchez only needs a simple majority, meaning he would only need 172 votes to overcome the combined votes of the right-wing and far-right PP, VOX and the right-wing regionalist UPN party.

(Fernando Heller | EuroEFE.Euractiv.es)