PETER VAN ONSELEN: How Anthony Albanese's Cabinet reshuffle will really unfold: 'Hand him a piece of paper'

This Sunday Anthony Albanese will announce the changes being made to his ministerial lineup, in the wake of two cabinet ministers stepping aside ahead of retiring from politics altogether at the next election. 

But don't make the mistake of thinking that the Labor prime minister gets to decide for himself who moves into his cabinet. 

No, no, no, that's not how things work in the Labor Party. 

In case you didn't already know this, the factional bosses sit down and determine who from within their faction gets to enter the Labor ministry. 

There are 30 ministerial positions all up, most in Cabinet, some in the outer ministry. The Right faction is allocated roughly half the positions, the Left faction gets the rest. 

The PM gets handed a piece of paper with exactly who will be part of his ministry by each faction. 

After that, he is given some power: he chooses the portfolios for everyone other than the deputy PM, Richard Marles, who as deputy has the right to choose his portfolio. 

Because the two retiring ministers, Linda Burney and Brendan O'Connor, are from the Left, that faction will pick two new entrants to the ministry to replace them 

The word is that one will be the assistant minister for Indigenous Affairs, Senator Malarndirri McCarthy.

The other is a choice between three other assistant ministers: Patrick Gorman and Senators Tim Ayres and Jenny McAllister, and one junior minister Stephen Jones. 

Before we go any further, assistant ministers are NOT part of the ministry. They are on the frontbench, technically, but they are outside the 30 ministerial roles. 

The rules say that parties in government can pick a further 15 MPs and Senators to take up 'assistant minister' roles. 

The PM gets to choose these positions for himself, free from being dictated to by the factions. 

As an aside, assistant ministers used to be called 'parliamentary secretaries', until the title was changed because some within their ranks expressed frustration at being mistaken for the minister's secretary rather than an important member of the team. 

I've always thought one's secretary is THE most important working for you, given that they keep you organised, but some politicians took exception to cases of mistaken identity so the title of parliamentary secretary is no more. 

Getting back to Sunday's reshuffle...Senator McCarthy, Indigenous herself, is a natural fit for the Indigenous affairs portfolio Burney is vacating. 

Both sides of politics have now embraced the benefit of - where possible - appointing an Indigenous politician to look after the Indigenous portfolio. 

While there are four possibilities to take up the other vacant cabinet role, there are really only two choices being considered: Senators McAllister and Ayres, with Ayres the frontrunner to secure the promotion, largely because he and Albo are good mates. 

McAllister is still a chance because she's in the Left (like the rest of the options) and she's a senator (like Ayres). Apparently team Labor is keen to boost the number of senators holding ministerial portfolios. 

Currently there are only four, but if the two retirements are replaced by a pair of senators that number jumps to six, which makes the business of the Senate easier apparently. 

Too bad that both Gorman and Jones are the better qualified of the four for promotion: Jones because he's at least had junior ministerial experience; Gorman because he was a senior adviser to a PM and the state secretary of the WA Labor Party when it won a historic election victory with Mark McGowan. 

Oh well, in Labor, talent rarely wins the day. Which is also why the two best replacements for the soon to be vacant assistant ministerial roles won't go to the two most qualified options: Andrew Charlton and Daniel Mulino. 

Remind me, are we in a per capita recession? Yes we are. Is cost of living the central issue at the moment? Yes it is. Does this government need to find ways to improve its economic management credentials and talent on its frontbench? You bet it does, the only member of the powerful expenditure review committee of cabinet with an economics degree is Albo himself. 

Charlton and Mulino, currently wasting away on the backbench, hold PhDs in economics from Oxford and Yale universities respectively. Their economic knowledge and experience - in government and working in the private sector - is second to none. 

It is certainly more formidable than Treasurer Jim Chalmers skill set. Dr Chalmers has a PhD in politics...studying the leadership of Paul Keating. 

While there is always an outside chance that Albo does the right thing and promotes one or two of this pair, the odds are staked against them both because they are in the wrong faction. 

The two likely promotions from the assistant ministerial ranks into cabinet are both from the left faction. Charlton and Mulino are in the right. 

So once again the stupidity of Labor's factional structure is likely to thwart doing the right thing and rewarding talent. 

Meanwhile, Immigration Minister Andrew Giles must be a little nervous that his head is on the chopping block, giving the utterly woeful job that he's done in his portfolio. 

He has released criminals into the community who re-offend, having changed the rules after taking over so that such an abomination became possible. 

But he need not worry. While he might get shuffled into another portfolio he can summarily also no doubt stuff up without consequences, Giles is unlikely to get dumped because his faction will protect him. 

And even if they don't, Albo probably will, given that he used to be the kingpin of Labor's Left and Giles is a close mate. 

If Giles does get shuffled off to another role my suggestion is Veterans Affairs, moving WA MP Matt Keogh into Immigration in a direct swap. 

Keogh's electorate in WA isn't as diverse as some Labor seats, so him taking a tougher line in immigration won't cause as much blowback in his seat or state as it could for others. 

Giles can then get on with finding a way to create problems in the veterans affairs portfolio. 

Which only leaves home affairs minister Clare O'Neil to consider. Does she also get shifted sideways to another portfolio given the problems she has had? It is a firm maybe from me. 

Either way, she also need not worry: her right-wing faction will look after her and ensure she remains on their list to stay a minister, even if Albo had the courage to dump her, which let's face it, he doesn't. 

There could be other minor changes up and down the list of 45 ministers and assistant ministers, including name changes to portfolios because that always gives the false impression of change when there really isn't any. 

But given that Albo is seeking to make a virtue of the fact he hasn't made changes to his ministry in his first two years - spruiking his inaction in the face of failure as a strength - I'm tipping minimal changes rather than a major reshuffle.