PETER VAN ONSELEN: Jim Chalmers was keen to tell me this Budget is about 'putting the economy before politics'. If you believe that...

Budget 2024 will be Treasurer Jim Chalmers' day in the sun, but no one will be watching how it is received in the weeks that follow more closely than the Prime Minister. 

Anthony Albanese has more to gain (or lose) than anyone. His future may well be on the line if voters feel let down in these difficult economic times. 

No first-term government has lost a re-election attempt in this country since 1931, so on that basis Labor should feel confident that a second term beckons. 

But plenty in recent decades have almost lost after one term, including the last Labor government when Julia Gillard scraped home as a minority government in 2010. 

Speaking to Chalmers ahead of writing this column, he seemed upbeat about the budget he's pulling together but aware of the challenges. 

'What we've tried to do here, Peter, is be really attentive to the economic cycle rather than the political cycle', Chalmers told Daily Mail Australia. 

If you believe that you'll believe anything: a politician ignoring politics? This could be the last Budget before the next election. But perhaps the budget will satisfy on both fronts, economically and politically.  

Politically, Chalmers needs to deliver Australians cost of living relief, but he must do so without stoking inflation and therefore risking interest rate rises as well. 

It's a near impossible task, and getting the balance right is akin to walking a tightrope. This is Chalmers' burden. 

The reward, if he gets it right, is credit for any political success that follows. Failure, however, would not only put the government in harms way, but also be a blow to the Treasurer's future leadership ambitions. 

More than two years into government makes it more difficult for Labor to pin bad economic news on its predecessors. Especially when a conga line of independent economists are lining up to blame 'sticky' inflation on domestic rather than international factors. 

Ten consecutive interest rate rises have occurred on Labor's watch, but because the trend began while the Morrison government was still clinging to power the blame was shared. 

Labor's efforts to absolve itself from blame were made easier by the honeymoon effect. New government's always enjoy such a period after winning office. 

Fast forward to today and the political landscape as we count down to Budget 2024 is very different. 

The income tax cuts the Coalition legislated with the support of Labor - before Chalmers amended them - will take effect on July 1. Chalmers calls them 'the foundation stone of the whole Budget'.  

To be sure, voters will welcome the extra money in their pockets to help cope with rising prices. But will Labor get credit for it? And will voters even remember to give them credit by the time of the next election? 

They certainly will notice another interest rate rise if that happens, or if inflation hangs around so that prices keep going up faster than pay packets do. 

If Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock even alludes to inflation remaining 'sticky' for longer because of spending in this Budget, Labor will be dealt an almighty political blow. 

Chalmers has been keen this week to send journalists copious amounts of data proving just how fiscally conservative he's been with new spending in the Budget compared to previous treasurers. 

It's spin - but it is also true. 

The Treasurer wants Australians to appreciate that inflation has fallen from its heights, but he absolutely knows it remains too high and that is a problem for everyone.

'It hasn't come off enough because people are still under a lot of pressure,' Chalmers told me.

So is the Government, and that pressure will only worsen if the Budget goes down badly.