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Prepare for Starmergeddon: Could YOUR true-blue Tory seat deliver Starmer a 'supermajority' on July 4? Use our searchable table to find out...

5 months ago 22

Labour will seize dozens of 'true blue' constituencies on July 4, according to shock projections which lay bare how the Conservatives face being wiped out.

MailOnline analysis of historic election results shows 130 seats which voted Tory in 2019 have either never swayed allegiance since at least 1997.

Of these, 65 are forecast to end up as part of Sir Keir Starmer's 'supermajority' after the election. 

Fifteen are expected to fall to the Lib Dems, according to a mega-poll released this week which predicted the worst Tory defeat in history. The Tories would only keep hold of 47, losing three to Reform.

Rishi Sunak's party would collapse to just 72 MPs under forecasted results, handing Labour an overwhelming 262 majority – trumping even what was achieved by Tony Blair in the 1997 landslide.

The poll, involving more than 42,000 Britons, predicts Reform would gain seven MPs in the Commons.

Under the same projection that could completely redraw the electoral map, the three 'safe' Tory seats that fall to Mr Farage's outfit would be Mid Leicestershire, Exmouth and Exeter East, and South Suffolk.

The other four seats, which have switched hands several times in their existence, include Clacton, where leader Nigel Farage is standing.

Clacton has been won by the Conservatives in every election since its creation in 2010, aside from in 2014 when UKIP defector Douglas Carswell stormed home.

MailOnline's analysis is searchable using new constituency names for this election. 

The Boundary Commission has reviewed constituency borders ahead of this election so for new or changed seats, historic results are based on what its closest predecessor would have been, according to the House of Commons Library, going as far back as when that seat was created.

For the purposes of the analysis, to be counted as safe, a seat needs to have only ever elected a Tory MP from at least the February 1974 general election or to have existed since at least 1997 and voted blue each time. 

Seats which were abolished and recreated have been excluded. Buckingham has been included as it was won virtually uncontested by speaker John Bercow, a former Tory, between 1997 and and 2017.

Among the traditional Tory strongholds at risk of falling to Labour is Deputy Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell's seat of Sutton Coldfield, held by the Conservatives since 1945.

Tory Chairman Richard Holden is also forecast to narrowly lose his seat to Sir Keir's party, with him trailing Labour by less than two points.


This is despite the furious row that erupted earlier in the campaign after the 'bloody loyal to the North East' MP was 'parachuted' from North West Durham to the seemingly safe seat of Basildon and Billericay in Essex, 300 miles away. 

At the last election, the constituency's former MP John Baron enjoyed a much safer 44-point majority.

Chingford and Woodford Green in North London, which has been represented by former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith since the seat's creation in 1997, is also predicted to be lost to Labour.

Despite dire MRP results, Mr Sunak last week insisted he can lead the Conservatives to an election victory, after trusted minister.

The Prime Minister tried to inject optimism into the Tory campaign following comments from Defence Secretary Grant Shapps who that they face being wiped out.

Mr Shapps said he was a 'realist' about the party's prospects as he renewed pleas for voters not to gift Labour a 'supermajority'.

But the PM insisted the party is 'on the right track'.

'There's still two-and-a-half weeks to go in this election, I'm fighting hard for every vote because I believe we can win,' he said.

'And there's a very clear choice at this election: it's having your taxes cut by the Conservatives or facing significant tax rises with the Labour Party.'

Rishi Sunak on a tour of the Sizewell B nuclear power plant with Station Director Robert Gunn yesterday

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to Persimmon Homes development at Germany Beck in York yesterday

Reform leader Nigel Farage on a visit to Rea Valley Tractors in Ormskirk, Lancashire today

Senior Tories fear that Mr Farage's candidates will split the Right-wing vote so seriously that 'socialist' Sir Keir will win a super-majority which will give him a 'blank cheque' in Downing Street.

Tory strategists hope to prevent a Starmer super-majority by persuading voters to back the Conservatives in seats where the combined Tory and Reform vote is larger than Labour's – but where Starmer's candidate would sneak through the middle if the vote remains divided.

At present, Reform's high polling numbers could allow Labour candidates to inch past Tory incumbents in dozens of local races. 

Under the Survation poll, Home Secretary James Cleverly was projected to lose his seat in Braintree, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would fall victim to the Lib Dems in Godalming and Ash.

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