Pro-EU parties consider written commitments to tackle political mistrust

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In today’s edition

• Can a written coalition agreement be the solution to the deep distrust dividing the pro-EU majority?
• Bits of the week: Italy’s Five Star Movement continues quest for EU political family; ID eyes vice-presidencies and chairmanships, wants ‘cordon-sanitaire’ lifted; Metsola worried about youth voting extremes, calls for MEP responsibility.
• In case you missed it: German far-right hit by accusations of Russia ties; Softening stance? French far-left party hints at supporting NATO in case of attack; EU elections crucial for Swedish Centre Party’s leadership; VDL on a tightrope, indulging the right without losing the left.

Growing mistrust among European political groups, who are supposed to form a pro-EU majority after the June European election, is prompting some in Brussels to consider a written national government-style coalition agreement. 

With trust broken, partners may ask for a specific agreement in writing, to keep incumbent and rerunning Ursula von der Leyen and her European People’s Party in line, so avoiding unexpected U-turns. 

The key factor bringing mistrust in the pro-European majority is the European People’s Party’s rapprochement with hard-right forces and turnarounds in key Green Deal files. But disagreements divide Socialists, Liberals, and Greens, too.

While the liberals criticise von der Leyen’s overregulation and call for a pause, Socialists and Greens want to double down on the Green Deal. 

The frontrunner for Commission President, von der Leyen, must pass the European Parliament’s confirmation vote to renew her mandate.

Five years ago, she got elected after informal negotiations, which led to her setting priorities, then transformed into a work programme for the Commission, once confirmed.

But this time around could be different

For the Liberals, “the coalition agreement should be the basis for all the upcoming legislation for the next five years,” an insider source from Renew Europe group told Euractiv. 

They would be interested in “defining a programme that should be endorsed by the next European Commission President, to get our votes.”

The Socialists’ “support for the next Commission president will be conditional to the politics and policies embodied in a concrete programme (…) we will not pass a blank check,” their President in the European Parliament, Iratxe García, told Euractiv when asked about the possibility of written agreements.  

“Whether this will be through a coalition agreement or through a bilateral negotiation, is still to be seen,” she added. 

Brando Benifei, head of the Italian Socialists, said that having a precise programme “like coalition agreements in European governments” is an opportunity to have “a clear pathway” for the next mandate. 

A written coalition agreement would be the first of its kind in EU history, advancing the union as a democratic project.

Most importantly, it would also give institutional and legislative predictability, much demanded by industry. 

Like the national level?

In Germany, the Netherlands, and Estonia, among others, a formal written coalition agreement among governing parties is a usual mechanism to avoid conflicts during the mandate, serving as a hard document to refer back to.

At a national level, the loss of support of a coalition partner usually leads to snap elections. 

But at the EU level, if any of the coalition partners quit supporting the Commission President and adopt an oppositional role, the incumbent would stay in the post, simply leaving the policymaking process at a standstill. 

The only tool the Parliament would have to reshuffle powers, as the treaties do not consider the possibility of snap elections, is to call for a motion of no confidence against the Commission, requiring a two-thirds majority of Parliamentary votes cast.

This would mean rebuilding the Commission as a whole. 

Such a mechanism has never been actioned successfully, though the Parliament’s threat to use it led to the fall of the Santer Commission in 1999. 

However, it is still too early to tell how negotiations will go, as parties first need to undergo a tough campaign: “Now, in what we think is winning the elections,” said García. 

“After that [EU elections] we will assess the situation and coordinate with other political families,” an EPP group spokesperson told Euractiv.

Bits of the week

Italy’s Five Star Movement continues its quest for an EU political family. The Five Star Movement (M5S) party, currently a non-inscrit, is searching for a new political group in the European Parliament. This could shift the balance of power as they are projected to score 14 seats. The negotiations with the Greens are on “standby” due to disagreements over military support to Ukraine, as the Greens position is “much closer” to Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni of hard-right party Fratelli d’Italia, the M5S leader Tiziana Beghin said during an event by ANSA.  

“After the elections, we will do our evaluations, then we will have a new coordinator for international relations and responsible for dialogues with European families. We can anticipate that we are dialoguing with all progressive forces, and we also do not exclude new opportunities after the elections,” she added. 

ID eyes vice-presidencies and chairmanships, wants ‘cordon-sanitaire’ lifted. During an event, far-right ID group President Marco Zanni said he was hopeful that the new shifting balance of powers will make the so-called ‘cordon-sanitaire’ against them obsolete, as their votes will be needed to reach majorities, eyeing committee chairmanships and Parliament vice-presidencies.

“This institution must push for the elimination of this anachronistic element,” he said. He pointed out that national Parliaments have already embraced ID members, such as Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National which holds two vice-presidencies in the French national assembly, and Germany’s AfD, which held the chairmanship of the budget committee in the Bundestag in 2018. 

Metsola worried about youth voting extremes, calls for MEP responsibility.  “It is also up to us politicians, because many times the misinformation starts with us, we have a responsibility,” the European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said during an event hinting about the recently unveiled pro-Russian propaganda network. She also explained that politicians need to go to the streets to convince young people, who might vote for “extremists”.

“I am very concerned that in many places there is a generation of people who, despite having all the information in the world at their fingertips, are more sceptical than before, who are tempted by a cynical black-and-white narrative in blaming Brussels for everything that is wrong, when the reality always has so many nuances,” she added. 

In case you missed it

German far-right hit by accusations of Russia ties. Top AfD seat contender for the European elections Petr Bystron, is in the eye of the storm since Czech intelligence accused him of receiving party financing from Russia. On top of this, Max Griera digs deeper, reporting on how the European Parliament is gearing up against foreign influence ahead of the elections. 

Softening stance? French far-left party hints at supporting NATO in case of attack. Amidst growing warnings of Russian aggression potentially expanding beyond Ukraine, French parties across the hemicycle have made a U-turn on NATO. This time it is Manon Aubry’s party’s turn to open up to the possibility of supporting the allies in case of an attack. 

EU elections crucial for Swedish Centre Party’s leadership. The Swedish opposition party is facing hurdles in the country, finding it challenging to gain consensus with an unfamiliar face as a leader. However, the European elections might turn out to be a tipping point for the Centre Party, with rising popularity in polls.

VDL on a tightrope: Indulging the right without losing the left. A right-leaning language embedded in a pro-Euro, pro-NATO, and pro-Ukraine friendly narrative: Ursula von der Leyen’s campaign rhetoric is a balancing act between not scaring the left and not losing the right. Listen to our podcast featuring Berlin-based politics reporter Nick Alipour. 

If you’d like to contact us for tips, comments, and/or feedback, drop me a line at max.griera@euractiv.com, or to Eleonora at eleonora.vasques@euractiv.com

[Edited by Aurélie Pugnet/Rajnish Singh]

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