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7 months ago
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The Conservatives face being reduced to a rump of 80 MPs as a surging Reform UK threatens to cost them dozens of seats, according to analysis.
A mega-study involving more than 18,000 people in multiple polls over recent weeks forecasts the Tories are on course for their worst election defeat in history.
It lays bare the extent to which Reform is costing the Conservatives by splitting the Right-leaning vote.
If the party, formerly known as the Brexit Party, were to stand down its candidates or reach a pact with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the Tories could hang on to 133 seats. But this drops to 80 with Reform still in the picture – 53 fewer.
Under either scenario it would be worse than the 156 MPs the Tories won in 1906, the party's worst ever result in a general election.
Meanwhile, Labour is on course to secure 470 seats, according to the study by experts Electoral Calculus for the Daily Mail.
Analysis shows that Reform UK, formerly the Brexit Party, could cost the Tories up to 53 seats at the next election
If the party were to reach a pact with Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives could hang on to 133 seats
If Reform stood down that would reduce to 430, further highlighting how Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is able to waltz through the middle in dozens of seats with the Right-leaning vote split.
Were the projection to materialise, Labour would be likely to enjoy at least a decade in government as no party with such a huge majority has lost the subsequent election. At present, the Tories have 348 seats to Labour's 200.
The analysis also shows how vulnerable the Tories are to being outflanked by Lib Dems among more moderate voters in the so-called Blue Wall home counties in the South.
It suggests voters in these areas, turned off by Tory policies such as the Rwanda asylum scheme, will help Lib Dems secure 48 seats, up from the current 15. The findings may reignite talk among Tory MP plotters about potentially toppling the PM, although no move is expected before local elections on May 2, where the Tories are expected to suffer a humiliating defeat.
Tory MPs are urging Mr Sunak to offer Mr Farage, honorary president of Reform, a plum job such as ambassador to Washington in exchange for candidates being stood down – much like in the 2019 General Election.
But Mr Farage told the Daily Mail last night there was 'zero chance' of such a pact this time around. And the Tories have also ruled it out.
One YouGov poll last week put Reform on 16 per cent of vote share, within touching distance of the Conservatives on 21 per cent. In some Red Wall seats in the North and Midlands, Reform are polling narrowly ahead of the Tories.
Electoral Calculus used the multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) method for its study, which produces predictions based on small geographic areas, analysing a person's lifestyle and background, but also factors in other surveys to reduce margins of error.
A similar MRP forecast conducted by Survation on behalf of campaign group Best for Britain, published yesterday, reached similar conclusions.It projected that the Tories will retain just 98 seats with Labour finishing on 468.
It predicted that even the PM is at risk of losing his seat, with his lead over Labour in Richmond & Northallerton put at less than 2.5 percentage points – within the margin of error.
It found Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has a one point lead over the Liberal Democrats in Godalming and Ash.
Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth North and Grant Shapps in Welwyn Hatfield would be among 13 Cabinet ministers who lose their seats.
Several prominent MPs are at risk of losing their seats. The Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has just a one-point lead over the Liberal Democrats in Godalming and Ash
But Kemi Badenoch, the Business Secretary, is set to retain comfortably her seat in North West Essex. She is the only rumoured leadership contender to replace Mr Sunak that would.
Martin Baxter, of Electoral Calculus, said: 'It looks like it's going to be a landmark election which will reshape British electoral landscape.
'It's looking like it could be an even bigger win for Starmer than Tony Blair in 1997. Although [Reform UK] are unlikely to win any seats themselves, they are likely to deprive the Conservatives of victory in many dozens of seats across the country in a classic protest vote against a party they see as Conservative in name only.'
A Conservative source said: 'A vote for any other party is a vote to put Keir Starmer and Labour into Downing Street.
'The Tories are focused on sticking with the plan that is seeing the economy turn a corner so we can build a brighter future for everyone.'
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