Reform UK could cost the Tories 41 seats at the general election, say polling experts - and it would 'no doubt' get worse if Nigel Farage returns

Rishi Sunak has been warned that Reform UK could cost the Tories 41 seats at the general election.

Polling experts predicted the insurgent party would fatally harm the Conservatives' chances in a slew of constituencies - including six held by Cabinet ministers.

They also claimed Reform's impact on the Tories' electoral fortunes would 'no doubt increase' should Nigel Farage return to lead the party ahead of the general election.

The warnings followed a new analysis of a YouGov mega-poll, which has sparked fresh panic in Conservatives ranks after being published earlier this week.

The pollster's latest MRP study found the Tories would win just 155 seats at the upcoming general election - less than the 165 seats they won in the face of New Labour's landslide victory nearly 27 years ago.

It also showed Labour are set to win 403 constituencies - handing Sir Keir Starmer a stonking 154-seat Commons majority - with Mr Sunak told he is facing a red 'tidal wave' when he eventually calls the general election.

The MRP study showed that, despite their recent rise in opinion polls, Reform UK were not set to win any seats in the Commons - although Farage-backed outfit were placed second in 36 constituencies.

The YouGov mega-poll put Labour on 41 per cent of the vote share, with the Tories on 24 per cent, the Lib Dems on 12 per cent, Reform on 12 per cent, and the Greens on 7 per cent.

The new analysis by YouGov and The Times found that, should Reform not field any candidates at the general election, the Tories would be expected to hold on to considerably more seats.

It showed the Conservatives would win 196 seats, 41 more than under the existing poll, while Labour's seat count would drop to 374.

The analysis used previous survey data to forecast in which seats Reform poses the greatest threat to the Tories.

It showed, of the 41 seats the Conservatives might win without Reform standing, six were held by Cabinet ministers.

Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the House of Commons, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, and Science Secretary Michelle Donelan would all be expected to keep their seats if Reform did not stand against them.

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary, was also likely to hold on to his North East Somerset constituency without the threat of Reform, the analysis found.

Patrick English, director of political analytics at YouGov, said: 'Analysis from the 2019 election suggested that the Brexit Party cost Boris Johnson's Conservatives 25 seats by standing in Labour seats during that election.

'Our analysis on the latest YouGov MRP [poll] suggests the effect of Reform UK in the upcoming election could be even larger.

'And this is without considering the looming spectre of Nigel Farage; should he choose to return to lead Reform UK, the 41 [seat] figure would no doubt increase.

'This will certainly add fuel to the fire around concerns about the impact that the challenge from the right is having on Tory electoral prospects.'

A recent rise in Reform's popularity has sparked panic in Tory ranks, with fears a split in the right-wing vote at the general election may lead to a Conservative wipeout.

It has led to renewed speculation about Mr Sunak attempting to strike a pre-election pact with Reform to limit any potential damage at the ballot box.

But Reform leader Richard Tice yesterday insisted there was 'absolutely zero' chance of Reform agreeing a deal with the Conservatives, who he branded 'socialists'.

'Starmergeddon, Sunakgeddon. It's all the same. It's socialism. We're heading to disaster,' he told Times Radio.

Mr Tice added the Tories had 'broken the country' and 'must be punished' by voters at the ballot box. 

'There's no difference between the socialist Tories with the highest taxes, the highest wasteful government spending, the highest mass immigration that no one voted for, and pro-Net Zero,' he said.

'Identical to the Labour plans and actions. And it's taken the country towards catastrophe.'

Mr Farage this week celebrated his 60th birthday amid fevered speculation about his political future.

He has consistently refused to rule out mounting another bid to become an MP and a return as Reform's leader in the coming months.