REVEALED: Opta supercomputer rates Manchester United's chances of making the Champions League last 16 after Galatasaray horror show... and it doesn't make pretty reading for Erik ten Hag's side!

11 months ago 51

United's chances of making the last-16 were dented in 3-3 Galatasaray draw
Opta's supercomputer has calculated their prospects of making it through
Manchester United in a mess - they have a collapse in them - It's All Kicking Off

By Adam Shergold for MailOnline

Published: 09:50 GMT, 2 December 2023 | Updated: 09:58 GMT, 2 December 2023

Manchester United's hopes of reaching the Champions League knockout rounds are dangling by a thread after another defensive horror show.

They threw away 2-0 and 3-1 leads to draw 3-3 with Galatasaray on Wednesday night and their last-16 destiny is now out of their hands.

United will need to beat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford on matchday six on December 12 and hope the other game between Copenhagen and Galatasaray ends all-square.

That's reflected in Opta's latest calculations, which show a minuscule six per cent chance of United making it through.

Even worse, Erik ten Hag's side are given a 66.3 per cent probability of crashing out of Europe entirely by finishing bottom of the group.

Manchester United's Champions League chances hang by a thread after their 3-3 draw with Galatasaray on Wednesday - with their fate out of their own hands ahead of matchday six

Erik ten Hag's side are bottom of Group A and need favours from elsewhere to progress

United need to beat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford and hope that Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw to snatch second place and reach the last-16

Opta rate their prospects of finishing third and going into the Europa League at 27.6 per cent.

Copenhagen - currently second in Group A and ahead of Galatasaray on overall goal difference - have home advantage on December 12 and are given a 55.2 per cent chance of making the last-16, compared to the Turkish club's 38.7 per cent.

Goals by Alejandro Garnacho and Bruno Fernandes put United in a commanding position in the hostile atmosphere of RAMS Park on Wednesday night.

But goalkeeper Andre Onana allowed Hakim Ziyech's free-kick to beat him to allow Galatasaray a route back into the contest.

United restored their two-goal advantage with Scott McTominay's goal early in the second-half, only for Onana to commit an even worse blunder to allow Ziyech to score again.

Kerem Akturkoglu then lashed home Galatasaray's equaliser to put a massive dent in United's last-16 hopes.

Ten Hag's team, by contrast, are the form team of the Premier League with five wins from their last six games.

They return to domestic duty with a tough trip to Newcastle United on Saturday night.

Opta have worked out United's chances of reaching the knockout stages at just six per cent

Goalkeeper Andre Onana was to blame for two of Galatasaray's goals as United collapsed

They have performed poorly throughout a group stage that has seen three defeats

While Manchester City and Arsenal have booked their spots in the Champions League knockouts, Newcastle must beat AC Milan in their final group game to stand a chance of progressing.

They also need Borussia Dortmund to get at least a point against Paris Saint-Germain.

The Opta supercomputer rates Newcastle's chances of making it through at 37.6 per cent.

Failing that, they are calculated to have a 38.4 per cent chance of taking the Europa League slot and 23.9 per cent of crashing out of Europe altogether.

PSG can still top the group but Dortmund are regarded as the favourites on 70.3 per cent. They have home advantage for the concluding game on December 13.

Opta give Newcastle United a 37.6 per cent chance of making it through to the knockouts

Newcastle were moments away from a famous away victory over Paris Saint-Germain

Debate will rage over whether Tino Livramento should have been penalised for a handball after it ricocheted off his chest first