Right-wing wind blows over Finland ahead of EU elections

4 months ago 13

In Finland, security issues dominate debate three weeks before the European elections, where the centre-right government, allied with the far-right, has not ruled out cooperation with the ECR in the European Parliament.

As Finland’s EU election campaign kicks off, issues related to foreign, security and defence policy are at the top of voters’ agenda, although topics such as climate change are also key, according to the European Parliament’s spring 2024 survey.

Home to the EU’s longest border with Russia at 1,340 km, the invasion of Ukraine and a tense past have contributed to bringing security and defence issues back to the fore, leading to the country’s accession to NATO last year.

“It seems that Finnish voters are especially interested in continued military support for Ukraine, strengthening the EU’s (or Europe’s) defence capability and increasing border security”, Tuomas Iso-Markku, senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of Foreign Affairs, told Euractiv.

Home to 5.5 million inhabitants, Finland has long accused Russia of exerting pressure through hybrid means, including instrumentalising migrants.

This led to Finland closing its border with Russia immediately in mid-April, and the government is studying an exception law that would allow the pushback of migrants on national emergency grounds.

“While security and defence matters seem to be of high importance for the voters, they do not divide Finnish parties to any great degree”, Iso-Markku said, adding there is a strong cross-party consensus on the need for effective European-level measures to curb Russian threats.

On other topics, the role of Finnish forests in the EU is far more divisive in the EU election campaign, as they are an essential source of economic revenue.

The debates on the EU’s Nature Habitats Directive were particularly tense between the Finnish parties. While the Greens, the Left Alliance and part of the Social Democratic Party supported it, centre-right parties and the far-right Finns Party remained highly critical, arguing that the EU should have no say in how Finland uses its forests.

Right-wing winning streak

Finland has shifted to the right in recent parliamentary and presidential elections, and this is likely to be reflected in the June election.

The parliamentary elections of April 2023 brought to power the most right-wing coalition in Finnish history- Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s National Coalition (EPP), the Finns Party (ECR), the Swedish People’s Party (Renew Europe) and the Christian Democrats (EPP).

According to the latest polls from Europe Elects, the European elections should not be a test for the ruling coalition, whose parties are well ahead in the electorate’s voting intentions.

The prime minister’s National Coalition party (KoK, EPP) is at 22%, almost double that of its Finnish Social Democrat rival. The ECR’s Finns Party is at 14%, while the Greens are down from 16% to 11% in the polls compared with the last EU elections.

“The turnout in these European elections is likely to be lower than in national parliamentary elections,” Iso-Markku added, explaining that this traditionally benefits the centre-right ruling National Coalition Party, as its voters tend to be active, loyal and pro-EU.

It could result in the prime minister’s party having four instead of the three MEPs it currently has out of the 15 attributed to the country.

Collaboration with ECR?

While Finland’s far-right party could double or triple its number of MEPs – from 1 to likely 3 – the Finnish MEPs from the EPP’s National Coalition Party could be part of the rapprochement between the centre-right group and the European far-right that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen referred to last month in Maastricht.

Earlier this month, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo declared in an interview for the leading Finnish newspaper Iltalehti that, in his view, the EPP couldn’t cooperate with “real far-right parties”, referring to the identity and Democracy (ID) far-right group.

On the other hand, he did not rule out a possible cooperation with the ECR group, which belongs to his coalition partners.

“The Finns Party is in the ECR, and there are various parties there. For example, Meloni’s party: despite its dark past, it is currently pursuing a very constructive European policy,” Orpo said.

Nevertheless, Orpo was careful to emphasise the importance of the rule of law for his government and isolating Russia, the single market, the market economy, human rights, and the commitment to combating climate change are key values of his own party and the EPP.

Orpo also expressed his concerns about ‘the rise of the far right in Europe’.

“If you look at Germany, France and Spain, it’s a worrying phenomenon. That’s why we need moderate right-wing parties”, he concluded.

[Edited by Alice Taylor]